Boris Johnson likes to talk about his commitment to the UK’s “precious union”. But last Thursday’s local government elections call into question the future of this increasingly divided country.
In England, Johnson is master of all he surveys as the people of Hartlepool handed him a victory in Labour’s once blood-red northern heartland.
Less than 100 miles up the road, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon effectively declared victory, and an unprecedented 4th consecutive term in office. Even in Wales, the stridently pro-devolution Labour party consolidated its power in Cardiff.
Such political promiscuity might be held up as evidence that devolution works: different electorates in different parts of the country voting for different parties. But in reality, these results are likely to herald a mounting constitutional crisis.
Unionist tactical voting helped ensure that the SNP fell just short of outright victory, but with the Greens, the pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament has increased. Sturgeon called it as an “emphatic” mandate for a second referendum.
None of this is likely to sway Johnson. He said he will invite the devolved leaders to a “Team UK” summit – but only after confirming that another Scottish referendum is not on the table.
Johnson’s “muscular unionism” is proving to be catnip for English voters, particularly in Brexiter constituencies. Many of Britain’s extreme right newspaper columnists lap it up, too.
But the Tories’ electoral success comes at a potentially great cost to the union itself. The post-empire UK was held together by social democratic reforms. The welfare state, particularly the NHS, bound Britain’s “nations and regions”.
Now British unionism comes in a single shade of red, white and blue. A Union Unit has been set up in Downing Street, overseen by Michael Gove. When not beset by in-fighting, most of the unit’s proposals for “strengthening” the union have revolved around “better branding” for projects financed by the British treasury. Last November the unit wanted vials of the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine to be labelled with the union flag.
This is not how unionism has prospered. For centuries, unionism has taken on different forms in different places, from Orange walks in Ballymena to bake sales in Berwick. In Scotland the once dominant Tories, then Labour, were essentially nationalist unionists: each were pro-UK but won votes on promising to defend local interests. Such heterogeneity was key to the union’s success.
In trying to force a unionism into a single form, Johnson is flagging up its weaknesses. The union has always worked best when nobody talked about it. Johnson’s muscular unionism increasingly serves to accentuate – the union’s underlying tensions.
The devolution settlement that saw the establishment of Scottish and Welsh parliaments at the end of the 20th century radically changed all British politics – except at the centre. While Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast became seats of new-found power, London remained the same.
Voters came to see their devolved parliaments as the primary source of sovereignty – even if legislative power stays in Westminster. The UK’s place in the EU papered over many of these tensions. Powers that might otherwise have been contested between different layers of government were often devolved to Brussels, and where tensions arose, it was easy to put the blame on the EU rather than Westminster.
Brexit brought this constructive ambiguity to a shuddering halt. Since becoming PM, Johnson has sharply increased Westminster's power. The UK’s internal power has been centralised in Westminster.
Far from strengthening the UK, the Tories political dominance will likely hasten its break-up. The Tories have realised that elections can be won by being seen as standing up for English interests against the rest of the union.
Ever since Cameron’s election posters of then Labour leader Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket propelled Cameron to victory in 2015, successive Tory leaders have pushed this once-taboo message. It is no coincidence that the better the Conservatives do in England, the stronger the SNP performs.
Meanwhile, English views on the union are increasingly defined by ambivalence. Conservative voters in 2016 made it quite clear they would happily see the UK break up if it meant delivering Brexit.
There might be some cause for comfort for less muscular unionists. Welsh Labour topped the polls, winning enough seats to govern alone. But Mark Drakeford’s unabashed Wales-centric strain of unionism increasingly feels like a minority concern outside the principality.
In Scotland the Tories finished second after a campaign that had revolved around a single policy: opposition to independence. The leaders of the two main unionist parties in Northern Ireland have resigned in recent weeks.
The UK is lurching towards a constitutional crisis. Relying on the Greens for a majority, Sturgeon’s demands for a referendum might be slightly tempered but they will not disappear. Neither will the question of a Border poll in Ireland.
A looser, more federal interpretation of Britain’s uncodified constitution could allow for divergence while retaining the union’s integrity – but if Johnson has to choose between his own electoral interests and the union, there will only be one winner.
Telling Scots there is no democratic route out of the union is not a long-term solution, much less the basis for a thriving partnership. History tells us that such a divided country is unlikely to stay united for long.
May 12, 2021 @ 07:31:53
