The likelihood of a trade deal with the EU....... if Brexit goes ahead, which is looking less secure by the day. An indicative vote in Parliament last night only defeated a motion for a second referendum by 12 votes. The gap is closing...... is looking less and less likely if we crash out with no deal.
The misunderstanding that many have in the current discussion is that the "deal" that might now be put forward for a FOURTH time (having been defeated three times already by record margins) is NOT a trade deal.
The "deal" is merely the Withdrawal Agreement (WA). This is the document that will settle the UK's divorce bill from the EU, and make temporary arrangements over things like the Irish Border while other negotiations take place and could take a number of years.
Currently, UK will have to pay £39 billion to settle outstanding legal liabilities. The EU have agreed to keep Northern Ireland in the Customs Union (The Backstop) pending the outcome of the trade negotiations that would follow if the WA is agreed.
Parliament will not agree to the backstop and that is what is at the root of the problem.
Unfortunately, with no WA (or any alternative acceptable to the EU), Britain will crash out of the EU on a "No Deal" situation. If the WA is not signed by Britain then no trade negotiations will take place with the EU as a whole and Britain would become a "Third Nation" subject to EU constraints on the 27 remaining members as to what individual member states could and couldn't agree with Britain.
In effect, we lose all trade with those 27 member countries. 500 million customers just wiped off the balance sheet.
The trouble with Shadey.... apart from being thicker than a navvies sandwich.... is that he thinks the WA is a trade deal. It isn't. And without it, we're not going to get one.
As for other nations, Japan is already having doubts about whether it can trade with Britain. They are quite concerned at our unwillingness to deal with the EU with respect and honour. The Japanese, for all their hard bargaining at the table, don't like people who threaten to renege on commitments they have already put their signature to. Other countries are also expressing concerns.
As for Argentina.... they are keeping quiet at this time. Spain less so.
Theresa May Backs Down Over Gibraltar
The Spanish leader, Pedro Sánchez, reacted immediately, claiming the UK would now have to open talks on “joint sovereignty” of Gibraltar, over which Spain has had a claim since the military dictatorship of Francisco Franco.
The Spaniards long term aim is to wrest Gibraltar away from British ownership. They'll do it one step at a time if they have to, but they're beginning the process already.
Shadey is of the opinion that Britain will never give up the Falklands and Gibraltar. He doesn't know British politics and politicians that well. The Conservatives would sell both out in a heartbeat if they thought it would get them something they wanted. As it is, in the end it's likely both will be forced upon them by weight of political pressure. Labour would do the same, only on ideological grounds. Both would find a way to blame the other party.
This is the sort of political cartooning we get here, that sums up the blame game tactics of the Tories. Trust me, Labour are just as bad....