@jck 200 Said
alex,
It has nothing to do with simplistic basic evolution as you keep going on about.
The wrong direction is pointed at the right direction calculations not the wrong direction following the wrong direction.
Look, from a million fish take just oneok?
Right now this one specimen gets a chance mutation that affects the fin...what are the odds on that being in the right direction compared to the billions of wrong directions?
Still the mutation for the one specimen gets it right ok?
See we are not talking about the millions who get it wrong first time so stop going on about them.
The odds against that one fish getting a right mutation to the fin is billions to one.
If you think it is an even money chance then all is lost.
So, you tell me what the correct odds are that this one specimen mutates a single gene to affect the tail in the right direction>
It does so that is not the problem.
The problem is it is a billion to one against it getting the mutation right at even the first stage.
Now, same fish must mutate again as the first flimsy mutation gives no benefit at all because the fin still looks like the original fin apart from a minor alteration.
You don`t think a single mutation for a single fish would cause the fin to turn into a perfect copy of a leaf do you?
Then for the single fish to mutate again in the right direction towards the leaf it is another million to one but that has to be multiplied by the first million to give the odds on two consecutive mutations in one correct direction.
Start multiplying the odds when they are in the millions to one and very soon you get odds of billions to one.
Look getting six numbers out of seven on the lottery is seven combinations and odds of one in seven but add one more number to make eight and any six from eight is twenty eight combinations and from then on it escalates.
Any six from 49 is close to 14 million combinations.
Let us say there are only 6 consecutive mutations required to get a fin to make a perfect copy of a certain plant.
Let us say there are only 49 possible mutations including wrong ones.
The odds then would be 14 million to one.
The problem is for all those living in the fantasy world of only 6 mutations required and only 49 possible mutations is that the number of consecutive mutations is far greater than 6 and the possible mutations including the wrong mutations at any stage are millions not 49!!!
How come I understand the maths and somehow no one else can come anywhere near the reality of the combined multiplication of even the simple odds?
What I am getting here is me giving simplistic numbers and no one else using any actual numbers at all, it is a swept under the carpet scenario of you only need a few fish and everything is dinky doo.
jesus wept.
If you do not understand permutations you should not even try to reason this out as it requires some basic understanding of permutations.
The fish does mutate the fin to a perfect copy of a leaf and must have done within the lifespan of the species that is fact.
This is put down to chance mutations with any beneficial mutation kept and all bad mutations being eliminated.
Because this happens no one seems to have done the calculations I am asking for and simply accepted it happens by chance without weighing up the odds at all.
I on the other hand have a strong interest in calculations regarding games of chance and have a fine understanding of odds and chance.
Before the fact I am telling you if you had placed a bet on a fish mutating its tail fin to copy a sea plant leaf perfectly 4 1/2 billion years ago the odds would far exceed 4 1/2 billion.
Not that it could not happen, the odds on it happening are probably in the trillions.
That is the fact of the matter and since no one can grasp permutations and no one has exact odds then I rest my case.
john
Calculations of chance have no relevance because evolution ..
IS NOT GOVERNED BY CHANCE.
You talk of a single fish, but a single fish can't mutate any more than i can.
It's his offspring who will have mutations away from his own genes.
There is no 'direction' these happen fairly randomly and there IS NO DESIRE OR GOAL.
So first of in considering what i say next ask you to disregard all notion of attaining a perfect copy of a leaf, before that happens.........
The mutations occuring will be beneficial or it will be detrimental or it will be neutral.
What that means is it will either help it survive, hinder its survival or not affect its survival.
The ones that help it survive, even if it's only a a little bit will be carried out through the species and increase exponentially as the fish carrying it live longer and have more kids and the ones without it die sooner and have less by comparison.
So say a mutation occures that changes the shade of a fish's fin,
It is slightly less noticable and so helps its survival.
so thats ok.
This process repeats.
The statistical chance of these mutations occuring are quite small, but you're looking at it from the wrong direction.
If i asked you to walk onto the beach and pick up a grain of sand, what would be the chance of you picking up any particular grain of sand?
1 in a billion? a trillion? more?
by this logic any thing that has ever happened is so unlikely as to be impossible. this logic is flawed.
mutations occur, they can't help but occur, they could be multiple kinds and spread over the entire population and over many millions of years a dizzying array of mutation will occur.
those that benefit will be carried on and those that don't will not.
stacking of these benefits can lead to interesting results,
Camouflage, mimicry...hell everything, hair, wings, eyes, brains, empathy. morality etc etc etc.