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jck200 On April 22, 2009




cardiff, United Kingdom
#61New Post! Mar 12, 2009 @ 01:24:58
One thing is certain, any advances in the study of evolution will not be coming from anyone who has responded here because they stopped thinking after they stopped reading.

This is a humble forum and if all we ever do is repeat standard theory what is the point?

Take what you know and think long and hard about it otherwise it is useless apart from repeating it to others like you would a joke you learnt to repeat.

I am a lateral thinker and it makes no difference to me whether I am right or wrong, what does matter is I keep thinking and I keep asking questions for that is the only way one truly learns anything new.

As soon as someone finds out something new and you read about it it is no longer new, don`t wait all your life for old news, try to be original in your own thoughts.

Look how boring these scientists are on tv repeating the same old theory as if they just worked it out and it is as old as they hills, it`s like a stage show they have been doing over and over all their lives.

Then you go to some research lab or to someone actually working on new ideas and then you see it, this is science not reading from books and never having an original thought for the rest of your life.

Give me strength to keep looking for that one individual who I can see has actually put a little originallity into their post.

I may as well be posting to a load of text books most of the time.

There is nothing to talk about with theory it has all been done for you, it`s down to what you personally can come up with that is original that takes you beyond study.

john
jck200 On April 22, 2009




cardiff, United Kingdom
#63New Post! Mar 12, 2009 @ 02:07:54
I really hope someone has done the maths and comes up with the actual numerical odds for the simple questions I asked.

Anyone questioning my maths must surely be certain of their own maths on the subject.

Don`t forget it is maths so we wont accurate numbers here.

good luck,

john
jonnythan On August 02, 2014
Bringer of rad mirth


Deleted



Here and there,
#64New Post! Mar 12, 2009 @ 02:12:23
@jck200 Said

I really hope someone has done the maths and comes up with the actual numerical odds for the simple questions I asked.


I didn't see any actual mathematical questions. Please repeat the question and I will do my best to answer it.

@jck200 Said
Anyone questioning my maths


I haven't seen any actual math from you either, so I'm not sure what you expect anyone to question.
alexkidd On February 07, 2012
Captain Awesome!


Deleted



in a bog, Ireland
#65New Post! Mar 12, 2009 @ 13:07:59

good heavens.

It's mind blowing how stuborn you are about accepting pretty basic ideas.

tell me what exactly is your problem with this.

'Any small mutation that increases survivability will make that individual fish less likely to be a victim of predation, from this it's chances of breeding and passing on the same mutation increases.
Depending on population size these traits after a few generations may become abundant in the population and therefore overtake and completely envelop the fish without this mutation, leading to a whole species with this trait.'

Wash, rinse, repeat for successive generations and further mutations.
Your question looking for a mathamatical answer doesn't make sense.

"The odds on any fish getting the first two minute changes correct"

No fish will be trying to get get its next mutation right,
If it does it's genes will survive better, If it doesn't then his genes will still do ok probably, its not an all or nothing thing here.

We are talking about many different generations here and not one individual fish, Their genes are free to mutate away from what will be beneficial but natural selection will punish them for that with decreased survivability.

With every one of these fish in the population mutating its genes as it bears children there is a vast amount of possible mutations and only those beneficial will be transmitted and propagated throughout the species.



You havn't said one thing that isn't easily explained by the very basic idea of evolution, this concept is straight out of origin of species. You don't even have to look at any of the great advances in the last 150 years of understanding of the process of evolution to concieve of this so i don't even get your problem with it to be honest.

Or the bizzare concept that people who read things repeat their facts like robots, you'll find that the people on here repeat their facts through understanding.
I have indeed thought very hard on evolution, it stands up to my scrutiny as well as that of thousands of more qualified people than ourselves.
MonkeyMadness On April 08, 2015
Lord of your mum





Big Tree, United Kingdom
#66New Post! Mar 13, 2009 @ 06:28:03
@alexkidd Said

It's mind blowing how stuborn you are about accepting pretty basic ideas.



Not really, the thread title says it all really - He doesnt understand.
jck200 On April 22, 2009




cardiff, United Kingdom
#67New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 00:51:52
I asked what are the combinations of any 20 from 10,000 and either no one knows the maths or do not even understand the question.

It is all very well using simplistic diagramatic examples that give a basic theoretical support for simplicity but it is another matter entirely to understand complex permutations over and over again so the maths question was to gauage whether anyone had any idea of such complex combinations.

The method to determine any number for a given number follows this pattern.

10,000 x 9,999 x 9,998 x 9,997 x 9,996 x 9,995 x 9,994 x 9,993 x 9,992 x 9,991 x 9,990 x 9,989 x 9,987 x 9,986 x 9,985 x 9,984 x 9,983 x 9,982 x 9,981 x 9,980 divided by 20 x 19 x 18 x 17 x 16 x15 x 14 x 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

There is no advantage in the first few mutations which involve billions of such combinations that can take a first mutation into a wrong mutation.

A fish mutating a yellow spot would not be more prone to predators so where are all the mutations that the clueless genes follow?

Here is a little story to demonstrate the headless gene scenario.

The gene walks along a road with no idea where it is going.

At every step along the way there are a billion roads leading off and the gene is unaware which road to take so picks any old road.

There is no advantage to the gene until it reaches the destination it has no idea even if it reached it.

So, even when it accidently takes a right road among the billions that road has a billion roads leading off and only one right road and this goes on and on and the maths show billions and billions of permutations more than any fish specie would ever live on the planet.

There is no advantage to having bits of the leaf copy as this would make the fish stand out more among the leaves it was hiding among. If this was such a good mutation the other million small fishes would have a million times better chance of mutating than the actual fish in numbers.

What we have is the fact that the fish has mutated to a perfect copy of a leaf in its tail fin so to the simple mind the basic theory can apply without even questioning the mathematics which I am at pains to point out runs into the billions.

I can see from all the replies that no one quite grasps the permutations against getting a perfect copy, I do so that is why I question whther it can be chance as this is not an isolated case for this fish but happens so often that for anyone not to question the possibility that there is something apart from chance operating is astonishing to me.

At least the fish can see the leaf so its brain has access to that information but plants making perfect copy do not have that so that causes even greater problems for chance alone to be the sole cause.

I fully understand odds and chance and I can assure you the odds are millions if not billions to one against chance being totally responsible.

I have no idea how any information can be exchanged between fish and leaf and a plant and what that requires to copy and it may not even be the case that there is exchange...one thing is certain that is that no one can rule it out simply because it is not known at this time.

If you do not consider something possible because it is not in the text book when will you ever think of anything other thatn what is in the text book?

I am trying to help you think for yourself.

You do not need to be right, you only need to think.

john
alexkidd On February 07, 2012
Captain Awesome!


Deleted



in a bog, Ireland
#68New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:10:15
@jck200 Said

I asked what are the combinations of any 20 from 10,000 and either no one knows the maths or do not even understand the question.

It is all very well using simplistic diagramatic examples that give a basic theoretical support for simplicity but it is another matter entirely to understand complex permutations over and over again so the maths question was to gauage whether anyone had any idea of such complex combinations.

The method to determine any number for a given number follows this pattern.

10,000 x 9,999 x 9,998 x 9,997 x 9,996 x 9,995 x 9,994 x 9,993 x 9,992 x 9,991 x 9,990 x 9,989 x 9,987 x 9,986 x 9,985 x 9,984 x 9,983 x 9,982 x 9,981 x 9,980 divided by 20 x 19 x 18 x 17 x 16 x15 x 14 x 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

There is no advantage in the first few mutations which involve billions of such combinations that can take a first mutation into a wrong mutation.

A fish mutating a yellow spot would not be more prone to predators so where are all the mutations that the clueless genes follow?

Here is a little story to demonstrate the headless gene scenario.

The gene walks along a road with no idea where it is going.

At every step along the way there are a billion roads leading off and the gene is unaware which road to take so picks any old road.

There is no advantage to the gene until it reaches the destination it has no idea even if it reached it.

So, even when it accidently takes a right road among the billions that road has a billion roads leading off and only one right road and this goes on and on and the maths show billions and billions of permutations more than any fish specie would ever live on the planet.

There is no advantage to having bits of the leaf copy as this would make the fish stand out more among the leaves it was hiding among. If this was such a good mutation the other million small fishes would have a million times better chance of mutating than the actual fish in numbers.

What we have is the fact that the fish has mutated to a perfect copy of a leaf in its tail fin so to the simple mind the basic theory can apply without even questioning the mathematics which I am at pains to point out runs into the billions.

I can see from all the replies that no one quite grasps the permutations against getting a perfect copy, I do so that is why I question whther it can be chance as this is not an isolated case for this fish but happens so often that for anyone not to question the possibility that there is something apart from chance operating is astonishing to me.

At least the fish can see the leaf so its brain has access to that information but plants making perfect copy do not have that so that causes even greater problems for chance alone to be the sole cause.

I fully understand odds and chance and I can assure you the odds are millions if not billions to one against chance being totally responsible.

I have no idea how any information can be exchanged between fish and leaf and a plant and what that requires to copy and it may not even be the case that there is exchange...one thing is certain that is that no one can rule it out simply because it is not known at this time.

If you do not consider something possible because it is not in the text book when will you ever think of anything other thatn what is in the text book?

I am trying to help you think for yourself.

You do not need to be right, you only need to think.

john



Again, bad analogy.
A better one would be the gene walking down the road and with every step he's doubling in number.

soon all roads will be filled.

Also a perfect copy of the leaf is something that is worked at, a look around nature will provide you with ample examples of species with good copies that might not be perfect but give an advantage..
You DO NOT need a full leaf to be beneficial, 1% of a leaf will help a tiny bit and a tiny bit is enough to ensure the genes propagate throughout the species.

"I have no idea how any information can be exchanged between fish and leaf"

...wtf?
Neither the fish nor the plant have any desire to look like eachother nor do the need to.
radharc On June 06, 2011




auckland, New Zealand
#69New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:13:30
evolution has become doctrine, and shame on anyone who doesnt go along with officaldom...
jck200 On April 22, 2009




cardiff, United Kingdom
#70New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:19:30
rad,

Shame on anyone who simply goes along with the theory.

john
alexkidd On February 07, 2012
Captain Awesome!


Deleted



in a bog, Ireland
#71New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:20:18
@radharc Said

evolution has become doctrine, and shame on anyone who doesnt go along with officaldom...



Quite the opposite,
But there is a difference between understanding and finding fault with a theory and simply not understanding it and thinking you find fault in the ghost you perceive to be evolution.

If someone could falsify the theory of evolution they'd get the Nobel prize.
If of course their findings stood up to refutation themselves.
jck200 On April 22, 2009




cardiff, United Kingdom
#72New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:35:51
chica,

What is this from you?

When you post a reply on a forum it is bad form to run away after you had your say thinking that sort of gives any credence to what you said.

I never asked you to post on here did I?

Your first point completely missed the situation that the leaf copy is reached and must then carry on mutating in every fish until no fish has the mutated leaf because.....if you can grasp this...the gene never knew what it was doing in the first place so carries on mutating in every fish and the result is to get all the fish over generations back to no leaf copy which is a brilliant situation I don`t think.

As for Kelvin he was correct with the maths and the age of the Earth has nothing to do with it anyway.

When he said the evolution on chance of a fin turning into a perfect copy of a leaf he meant it would take billions of years longer than the fish been around.

Because, unlike everyone on here, he understood the complexities of of the permutations going wrong.

What he meant was what I am saying, if there are a billion ways the mutation can go wrong and only one way the mutation can go right and there are a number of such steps then the time required on pure chance is longer than 4 1/2 billion years.

Now do you get it?

john
alexkidd On February 07, 2012
Captain Awesome!


Deleted



in a bog, Ireland
#73New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:41:42
@jck200 Said

chica,

What is this from you?

When you post a reply on a forum it is bad form to run away after you had your say thinking that sort of gives any credence to what you said.

I never asked you to post on here did I?

Your first point completely missed the situation that the leaf copy is reached and must then carry on mutating in every fish until no fish has the mutated leaf because.....if you can grasp this...the gene never knew what it was doing in the first place so carries on mutating in every fish and the result is to get all the fish over generations back to no leaf copy which is a brilliant situation I don`t think.

As for Kelvin he was correct with the maths and the age of the Earth has nothing to do with it anyway.

When he said the evolution on chance of a fin turning into a perfect copy of a leaf he meant it would take billions of years longer than the fish been around.

Because, unlike everyone on here, he understood the complexities of of the permutations going wrong.

What he meant was what I am saying, if there are a billion ways the mutation can go wrong and only one way the mutation can go right and there are a number of such steps then the time required on pure chance is longer than 4 1/2 billion years.

Now do you get it?

john



Why do you keep saying its 'chance'?
The mutations themselves could be termed as chance events but the actual process of evolution by natural selection is the very opposite of chance.
It's finely dictated by the survivability of the improved genes in their environment.
jck200 On April 22, 2009




cardiff, United Kingdom
#74New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:43:37
alex,

I am on planet earth for information purposes only ok?

Who the hell is talking about falsifying the theory of evolution?

Is that what everyone on here is thinking?

Give me strength!!!

I am saying there is a small possibility that during the evolutionary process which, I fully agree with, there may be some exchange of information that aids perfect copy.

I base this on the mathematics required for chance alone to do the perfect copy within the lifetime of the earth.

I agree with Lord Kelvin that for chance alone to be responsible would take billions of years.

Lord Kelvin may not have know the age of the earth but he did understand the mathematics of chance when applied to evolution.

You can say he was wrong about the age of the earth because everyone knows that...

but...

...if you are saying your understanding of maths is better than his then that is quite something.

john
alexkidd On February 07, 2012
Captain Awesome!


Deleted



in a bog, Ireland
#75New Post! Mar 15, 2009 @ 01:45:17
You have to know what evolution is before you can argue for or against it.
The fact that you are saying these things makes it very conspicuous that you don't actually understand what evolution is.

It's like a person yelling 'SNAP' in the middle of a poker game.
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