@jck200 Said
I asked what are the combinations of any 20 from 10,000 and either no one knows the maths or do not even understand the question.
It is all very well using simplistic diagramatic examples that give a basic theoretical support for simplicity but it is another matter entirely to understand complex permutations over and over again so the maths question was to gauage whether anyone had any idea of such complex combinations.
The method to determine any number for a given number follows this pattern.
10,000 x 9,999 x 9,998 x 9,997 x 9,996 x 9,995 x 9,994 x 9,993 x 9,992 x 9,991 x 9,990 x 9,989 x 9,987 x 9,986 x 9,985 x 9,984 x 9,983 x 9,982 x 9,981 x 9,980 divided by 20 x 19 x 18 x 17 x 16 x15 x 14 x 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
There is no advantage in the first few mutations which involve billions of such combinations that can take a first mutation into a wrong mutation.
A fish mutating a yellow spot would not be more prone to predators so where are all the mutations that the clueless genes follow?
Here is a little story to demonstrate the headless gene scenario.
The gene walks along a road with no idea where it is going.
At every step along the way there are a billion roads leading off and the gene is unaware which road to take so picks any old road.
There is no advantage to the gene until it reaches the destination it has no idea even if it reached it.
So, even when it accidently takes a right road among the billions that road has a billion roads leading off and only one right road and this goes on and on and the maths show billions and billions of permutations more than any fish specie would ever live on the planet.
There is no advantage to having bits of the leaf copy as this would make the fish stand out more among the leaves it was hiding among. If this was such a good mutation the other million small fishes would have a million times better chance of mutating than the actual fish in numbers.
What we have is the fact that the fish has mutated to a perfect copy of a leaf in its tail fin so to the simple mind the basic theory can apply without even questioning the mathematics which I am at pains to point out runs into the billions.
I can see from all the replies that no one quite grasps the permutations against getting a perfect copy, I do so that is why I question whther it can be chance as this is not an isolated case for this fish but happens so often that for anyone not to question the possibility that there is something apart from chance operating is astonishing to me.
At least the fish can see the leaf so its brain has access to that information but plants making perfect copy do not have that so that causes even greater problems for chance alone to be the sole cause.
I fully understand odds and chance and I can assure you the odds are millions if not billions to one against chance being totally responsible.
I have no idea how any information can be exchanged between fish and leaf and a plant and what that requires to copy and it may not even be the case that there is exchange...one thing is certain that is that no one can rule it out simply because it is not known at this time.
If you do not consider something possible because it is not in the text book when will you ever think of anything other thatn what is in the text book?
I am trying to help you think for yourself.
You do not need to be right, you only need to think.
john
Again, bad analogy.
A better one would be the gene walking down the road and with every step he's doubling in number.
soon all roads will be filled.
Also a perfect copy of the leaf is something that is worked at, a look around nature will provide you with ample examples of species with good copies that might not be perfect but give an advantage..
You DO NOT need a full leaf to be beneficial, 1% of a leaf will help a tiny bit and a tiny bit is enough to ensure the genes propagate throughout the species.
Neither the fish nor the plant have any desire to look like eachother nor do the need to.