@shadowen Said
A couple of the MPs who were on the committee that the yellowsnow authors reported to asked them if they had visited the PoC. They said no. They asked if they had spoken to anyone at the PoC. They said no. This came up on LBC and on BBCQT. I havent heard anyone claim what they said wasnt true. Furthermore, Jean-Marc Puissesseau, president and chief executive of Port Boulogne Calais went on BBC's today programme in September last year to once again state that a no deal exit wouldnt cause them any problems. He was also pretty angry at the authors of Yellowsnow and he stated that no one had visited the Port or ever even bothered to speak to anyone from the Port. He then went on to describe the preparations they had taken for a no deal scenerio and to talk about the stress testing they had done (something i have previously detailed). By the way, he was also on BBC's today back in January of last year where he explained why a no deal exit wouldnt cause any problems re the flow of traffic at the Port.
I just spent the last 2 hours trying to find even a mention of this anywhere and found nothing. Could you please link something to back up this statement?
The only thing I could find were statements that the Port Authority made regarding it's own readiness. I don't deny that he made them, I'm just skeptical about their truth.
Quote:
The yellowsnow authors offered no data. They simply made general assumptions based on significant congestion at the PoC caused by unready HGVs. This despite the fact that the PoCA had built a very large holding area well away from the Port specifically for unready HGVs. Something the Yellowsnow authors ignored completely. They also ignored the extra staff numbers at the PoC and they ignored the results of the PoCA's stress testing in a no deal scenario. The PoCA is a very big business. They have a lot to lose if they don't properly prepare for a no deal scenario and such a scenario comes to pass.
Re preparations for a no deal scenario France (as of August 2019) has spent over €40 million and hired 700 extra customs officers. Furthermore a new "smart border" with cameras has been developed. This involves scanning the license plates of trucks heading to the UK and automatically linking them to shipping documents filled out online by exporters. As mentioned previously they have also built cavernous new inspection hangars as well as huge parking lots well away from the Port specifically for unready HGVs. Now you might have thought that the authors of Yellowsnow might have popped over to France to inspect this new infrastructure, talk to the PoCA about their new "smart border" technology etc. But no, why do that when you can simply sit in an office in London and use your imagination instead of facts.
Let me ask you a question. How reliable are those measures in a live scenario? Not a stress test, but a live scenario?
Quote:
Well you start off by speaking to those in charge of the different organisations/institutions that would be at the coal face of a no deal scenario. You gather as much up to date and credible information as you can etc etc etc
Which helps in making a worst case scenario how exactly?
Quote:
We can confidently say what data they didnt use. That alone ensures that their report is not credible.
Maybe you can. I'm not prepared to stake my reputation and values on an inference.
Quote:
I have discussed at length why (based on data/facts the yellowsnow report is not credible.
You have discussed at length why the data and facts available have informed
your opinion that Yellowhammer is not credible.
Quote:
I did an entire post on all the predictions that were so beloved by remoaners that have been wildly off the mark. Eg employment rates, inflation, recession etc etc etc. Ringing any bells? If not i shall go back through my posts another time and find them for you.
I think I remember now but I'm not entirely sure. I believe my response to those were to ask you what the underlying assumptions of those predictions were.
Quote:
You can compare the YouGov polls for the last 5 elections with the actual results and see that they are reasonably accurate. That said polls in general are never more than an indication of how a larger demographic felt about a particular issue or issues at a very specific point in time.
Which means what, exactly, to the larger discussion about the accuracy of polls "like" YouGov in relation to economic prediction?
Quote:
Your problem is that statistics show you are very wrong. Hell most so called economic experts didnt even predict the GFC.
You of course say with no actual statistics to back that up. As for the GFC, I don't know what your talking about.