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Brexit Will Soon Have Cost More Than 47 Years Contributions To The EU Put Together

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Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#1New Post! Jun 24, 2020 @ 21:48:32
Business Insider Report On The Cost Of Brexit

Snip

Brexit is on course to cost the UK more than its combined total of payments to the European Union budget over the past 47 years, Bloomberg Economics found.

Bloomberg said the cost of the UK's vote to leave the EU had already reached £130 billion.

A further £70 billion is likely to be added by the end of 2020, the economist Dan Hanson found.

Business confidence and investment in the UK has dipped significantly since the 2016 vote.

Not my words. These are the words of economist Dan Hansen of Bloomberg Economics and the net effect of this is that the British economy is 3% smaller than it would have been if not for Brexit.

I'm not an economist so I can't say how many favourable trade deals we would have to strike - even before we take into account those we have discarded as EU members - in order to make that amount of money back up. To hazard a guess, I suggest "A Lot".

At this time, not very much is on the horizon. Coronavirus has given other countries something more important to worry about than beggars from a tiny, remote island off the coast of continental Europe, with an attitude hell bent on self-destruction.

Still..... Blue passports, eh..?


Current British negotiating position with China

gakINGKONG On about 4 hours ago




, Florida
#2New Post! Jun 25, 2020 @ 00:17:50
And we're all cheering for you guys to survive and thrive.

Give Princess Diana and Winston Churchill a salute at the local fish-and-chips.

I feel like all people should spell theater as "theater" instead of like "the-e-tray"

Pip pip.
Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#3New Post! Jun 26, 2020 @ 18:11:27
@gakINGKONG Said

And we're all cheering for you guys to survive and thrive.

Give Princess Diana and Winston Churchill a salute at the local fish-and-chips.

I feel like all people should spell theater as "theater" instead of like "the-e-tray"

Pip pip.



Thank you for your kind good wishes. I fear, however, we are going to need more than that.

The British are the sort of people who, on the Titanic, would blame the iceberg for not getting out of the way.

A kind of fantasy mentality exists here that we are an "exceptional" people. We are the very best at everything. The whole world falls over to give us all that we want and somehow, the Empire still exists. The British armed forces are invincible and USA should think yourselves lucky that we're on the same side. If you upset Tommy Atkins, be afraid. Be very afraid.

The Irish should be grateful that we gave them the potato famine, we won both world wars single handedly without anybody else's help, the Queen (gawd bless 'er) is still Empress of India and every fish in the north sea carries a British passport (a blue one of course) so only we are allowed to catch them.

And trust me..... a lot of people here really..... really..... REALLY..... believe all that.

The Europeans don't.

And we really don't hold all the cards.

And we really do need them more than they need us.
dookie 5 minutes ago
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#4New Post! Jun 26, 2020 @ 19:42:35
Another point, as far as the UK's contributions to the EU budget is concerned is that per year it is so little of GDP. A quick look at my Tax Return tells me that just 1p in the £ went to the EU, less than the contributions to museums and libraries! And for such a contribution we received tariff free, quota free access to the large EU market of 27 countries - a market representing approx 50% of our entire trade. If the UK produced the best at the most competitive price, no barriers could be put against our produce. Again, part of our contribution went towards the poorer economies, thus addressing the so called "immigrant problem" at source - this in as much as if the weaker economies are helped to flourish there is less need to look further afield for employment.

Alas, the UK Press is fond of speaking of "Billions" being "thrown at" the EU, suggesting we should "spend it on ourselves" - a suggestion that led to the great lie on Boris Johnson's Battle Bus during the Referendum Campaign.

As for our immigrants, statistics show that they make a net contribution to the UK Exchequer. Alas, once again, our gutter Press is fond of suggesting that our European friends are here to "get on the benefits gravy train" and love to speak of the lack of housing for the UK born, of our NHS and Social Care system bending under the strain of "too many people". Simple mathematics demonstrates that given the net contribution to the Exchequer, the UK's problems with regard to housing and social care is actually one of seeking a more equitable distribution of our wealth, a failure of which can be placed at the door of successive UK Governments and not the EU.

(The point also needs to be made that the UK Social Care/NHS is staffed by thousand upon thousand of immigrants, all of whom we have been clapping each thursday during the Coronavirus epidemic! Alas, the new Visa laws being prepared will make it virtually impossible for such people to gain entry to the UK in future - the very ones with the actual qualities of care and commitment that have kept this country on its feet for the past few months)

Brexit is a tragedy, an act of national self-harm. A misguided attempt by the then PM Dave Cameron to heal divisions within his own Party, and to stop the haemorrhaging of votes to UKIP, by calling a Referendum and putting the matter to bed, has led instead to divisions across our entire society. Now a hard core of prior Eurosceptics form our Government, seeking - I believe - a Hard, No Deal Brexit which Polls tell us is not the wish of the vast majority of the British people.

Given that the Tory Party under Boris Johnson won the december General Election on the back of his "Oven Ready Deal", and given that the UK's outdated voting system allowed the votes of just 34% of our entire Electorate to translate into a "landslide" of an 80 seat majority, the future is not bright for those wishing to see the divisions in our country healed.
Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#5New Post! Jun 26, 2020 @ 23:35:22
It's the division in the country that is the hardest thing to bear about it all. It's impossible not to be angered by the way the referendum campaign was carried out... the lies told... the criminal activity.... the blatant disinformation on things like the big red bus.

The wounds inflicted by Brexit will take generations to heal. It's been the most self-destructive thing we've done since the Civil War.

How could anybody possibly believe that £350 million a week extra was going to be given to the NHS...? It was ludicrous from the outset, yet so easily swallowed and with such relish. 52% of the population WANTED to believe everything they were told.

As you quite rightly point out, there has been a drip-drip-drip feed of scapegoating regarding every issue of government over more than twenty years. The likes of Rod Liddle, Richard Littlejohn and even Boris Johnson himself during his time in Brussels as the Sunday Telegraph's European Correspondent, sending back, every week, ridiculously false stories about bendy bananas and hundreds of other ridiculous falsehoods.

The EU laughed at him. Surely, they thought, the British people were too intelligent to fall for such nonsense. But we aren't. And we did. Johnson's relentless catalogue of disinformation and lies sunk into the British psyche.

The Brexit campaign gave the discontented a scapegoat they were eager to recognise, and bearing in mind my previous comments about the myth of "British Exceptionalism", it's always been difficult for us to bear seeing Germany - a country we still.... STILL.... consider a conquered nation - has become far better than us in just about all respects.

A lot of older Britons still think we never had an opportunity to enjoy the "spoils of victory." While we still had bomb sites and rationing, Germany received the lions share of Marshall Aid, and then came the Berlin airlift. To the mind of many here, the Germans should have been left to stew in it and Britain should have received all that aid. After all, we won the war, dontcha know...!!!

Brexit, in the minds of many who voted for it, was nothing more than an exercise in "kraut bashing". A chance to stick two fingers up at Fritz and all the other bloody foreigners. We could get away with the act of defiance because we are the "greatest nation on earth". So many people truly believed there would be no consequences and the Europeans would come running to us, begging us to give them a deal....the terms of which we, naturally, would dictate to our advantage.

And we're defiant about it too. For example, the truth is slowly dawning on the fishing community in Cornwall that Brexit is going to do far more harm to their livelihoods than benefit. They're going to lose their EU subsidies and the UK government is not going to recompense them by anything near what they're going to lose. And that's before the French slap tariffs on anything they try to sell over there (which is actually almost all of their catch) because of the, now near certain, No Deal at the end of the transition period.

But the Cornish fisherman defiantly say they still support Brexit. I think that's more a case of defiant pride than anything else.

And we all know what pride comes before.
dookie 5 minutes ago
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#6New Post! Jun 27, 2020 @ 12:20:50
Well, Jennifer, we are both singing to the choir as it were.

It IS tragic. The UK looks very much like it will fall apart. Scotland will eventually leave following a second Independence Referendum, while NI will finally be part of a United Ireland (personally, as I read it, a beneficial result to the Irish Question, but sadly more bloodshed on the way towards it)

For me, at the heart of it is this:- prior to the actual Referendum a trading Deal with the EU was assumed, even promised, should we elect to leave. This would be "the easiest Deal in history" as we were told. Arch Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg is on record as telling a Commons Select Committee that given a Leave vote, ALL OPTIONS WOULD REMAIN ON THE TABLE. Nigel Farage (whose hedge Fund friends on the night of Referendum made millions when he said, as the Polls closed, "I think Remain have shaded it" - this when he had already seen an Exit Poll by Survation predicting a Leave victory) said during the Campaign that we should "look at Norway, their people are happy" thus implying that a Norwegian style deal remained an option i.e. continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union.

However, once the unexpected Leave result was in, the mood changed. We heard for the first time the coming mantra of "Leave MEANS Leave", of a "Hard Brexit" and the fears of the Arch Brexiteers of BRINO.....Brexit In Name Only.

And by various means, including the UK's outdated voting system, the Arch Brexiteers are now in complete control.

To unite our country one would think that by the UK remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union, but leaving the EU as far as its movement toward a "United States of Europe" is concerned, a consensus and healing could be anticipated. This because it has so often been said by many that they supported membership when the EU was simply a trading bloc and nothing more; again because of Polls showing overwhelming dislike of any No Deal outcome.

But no, as I say, the Hard Brexit Eurosceptics are in complete control. They have "won" and this is "Democracy" UK style.

EDIT:- just to add, in my view the push toward as Hard a Brexit as possible is partly driven by what started the whole fiasco in the first place.i.e.The break up of the Tory Party, this from their core vote slipping away to UKIP or some such Party that would be sure to be resurrected if our Brexit was deemed too soft!
Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#7New Post! Jun 27, 2020 @ 16:21:59
There is no doubt that the battle to have any sort of constructive relationship with the EU is lost. The extreme free marketers are going to get the total departure that they always wanted and always intended to happen.

We (remainers) did our best to save the country from itself and as late as last Autumn, it looked as if we might actually beat the whole charade. I took part in both of the major demonstrations in London between 2016/19 and on both, the mood of optimism that we might be able to force a second referendum (2R) was very clear.

The cuckoo in the nest of the remain campaign though, was Jeremy Corbyn. He wanted Brexit as much as Johnson, Mogg, et al. At no point ever was he in favour of 2R.

Theresa May's mistake in calling the 2017 general election opened the door and if Labour had thrown their weight wholeheartedly behind 2R there is little doubt it would have happened, and a strong probability of overturning the first referendum result.

Brexiters argued that a second referendum would have been anti-democratic, but hey.... when was voting on anything ever anti-democratic...?

2R was justified on the grounds of the criminal activity by Vote Leave alone. Indeed, the judge in his summing up of the prosecution of Vote Leave stated that if the referendum result had been legally binding, it would have been declared null and void.

Which brought us to the conundrum of the whole thing. A legally binding vote would have been declared null and void, meaning a second referendum would have been necessary, or Article 50 having to be withdrawn on legal grounds and the whole thing ended there and then (I bet the Brexiters would have wanted a second referendum in that case, eh..?). On the other hand, because the referendum result was only advisory, the government wasn't obliged by law to implement the result and therefore there was no legal or democratic bar to 2R.

Either way, the argument that a second vote was anti-democratic was entirely false.

But Corbyn in effect, sabotaged the second referendum campaign with his fence sitting and failure to fully commit. He was as instrumental as any Tory in making sure Brexit happened.

The Tories, and all Brexiters owe him a huge debt of gratitude for his part in Brexit eventually going through.

And so we are where we are and all we an do now is start on the long haul to rejoining.

It will take at the very least, ten years before we can even think about making that happen. For a start, the baby boomer generation has to finally demise. They're the biggest obstruction. A new generation of pro-European voters have to become the dominant voting force in Britain. Sadly, Britain is going to have to learn the hard lessons through hardship and deprivation that Brexit will bring. Watching our country descend to almost third world levels while Europe forges ahead of us.

The extreme right is having its day. Right now. This is their time. And they will do immense damage to Britain before the voting public finally wakes up to what's happened and the sea change that is needed starts to fully take root.

I believe we will re-enter the EU, and when we do we will finally then be able to shake off the old links and symbols that tie this country to living in the past. Sterling will have to go and Britain will have to adopt the Euro. We will have to join Schengen and fully sign up to the Lisbon Treaty... and any other treaties that will be passed between now and then, which we will now have no say at all in creating because we've given up our seat at the table so frivolously.

As the effects of Brexit wreak damage to ordinary people's and the damage of what we voted for becomes increasingly visible, and they see how they've been hoodwinked by the rich who will just get richer while the gap between poor and rich grows ever wider, support for the tories will start to wane. Nobody likes to be taken for a mug. There will be an electoral backlash.

This government won't last forever. Johnson will go one day. Labour will take power at some stage and if the party is led by an enlightened man like Starmer, a lot of the damage of these years can start to be undone. Perhaps the process could start to begin as soon as 2025. We can but hope.

When Britain rejoins the EU, it will have to be as a fully committed partner, and the old Britain - currently shackled to its past by a generation that just won't let go - consigned to the history books forever.

It will happen in my lifetime of that I'm sure.
dookie 5 minutes ago
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#8New Post! Jun 27, 2020 @ 17:01:53
Well, I'm a Baby Boomer.......but an exception to the rule! But Jennifer makes the correct point - demographic analysis tells us exactly where the heart of Brexit is found. It filters out from the white male South of England Tory, and age wise will be the first to fade away! Alas I am in the midst of it, but somehow their Reality has passed me by.

Myself, I am not as optimistic as Jennifer. The Tories have a great past record of self renewal when all appears lost. Again, though by no means a Jeremiah, I have deeper fears in these chaotic times.

When all the old EU Laws are passed into UK Law the alarm bells are already ringing......"What (a) comprehensive analysis reveals is that far from Parliament getting new freedoms to introduce new laws for the British people the powers are being transferred from the European Commission to government ministers and indirectly to government advisers like Dominic Cummings".

Again, the growing backlog of court cases already has certain people people advocating suspending Trial by Jury........

"Emergency Powers" are always to be feared from Right Wing Governments, and the Pandemic and uts aftermath offers rich opportunities.
Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#9New Post! Jun 27, 2020 @ 17:44:10
@dookie Said

Well, I'm a Baby Boomer.......but an exception to the rule! But Jennifer makes the correct point - demographic analysis tells us exactly where the heart of Brexit is found. It filters out from the white male South of England Tory, and age wise will be the first to fade away! Alas I am in the midst of it, but somehow their Reality has passed me by.

Myself, I am not as optimistic as Jennifer. The Tories have a great past record of self renewal when all appears lost. Again, though by no means a Jeremiah, I have deeper fears in these chaotic times.

When all the old EU Laws are passed into UK Law the alarm bells are already ringing......"What (a) comprehensive analysis reveals is that far from Parliament getting new freedoms to introduce new laws for the British people the powers are being transferred from the European Commission to government ministers and indirectly to government advisers like Dominic Cummings".

Again, the growing backlog of court cases already has certain people people advocating suspending Trial by Jury........

"Emergency Powers" are always to be feared from Right Wing Governments, and the Pandemic and uts aftermath offers rich opportunities.


Re: My BIB

The Tories have always had the advantage of being the only (traditionally at least) right of centre party in Britain while Labour and the Liberals / LibDems have tended to split the left of centre vote. Remember.... the referendum was only called by Cameron because he saw UKIP as being dangerous to the Tory hegemony of the right wing vote.

The last election was as good as scuppered because Labour and the LibDems couldn't come to any agreement over tactical voting whereas UKIP and the Tories struck a deal which prevented their vote from being split.

This is where the Tories advantage lies, not in any innate talent for pulling rabbits out of hats.

The disastrous regime of Jo Swinson at the LibDems (even I didn't want Article 50 rescinded without a second vote) and the unelectability of Corbyn contributed more to the Tories landslide (only 35% of the popular vote, but under FPTP, one third of the voting public can make for a "landslide" victory) than any belief that Johnson would make a good Prime Minister.

I think that message has finally been rammed home to Labour and LibDem in no uncertain terms by the events of the last four years.

Labour now have an intelligent and supportable leader who I believe the Tories genuinely fear. We don't know yet who the next LibDem leader will be, but already the signals are being sent out from Labour HQ that Starmer wants a more "constructive relationship" with them. That sounds good.

The Tories have already tried to smear Starmer, first with Nadine Dorries wretchedly - and glaringly obviously - doctored video and then with a planted "Expose" in a Sunday newspaper which attempted to paint Starmer as some sort of Rolls Royce socialist... a fraud... that backfired in their face.

Desperate measures are being resorted to already, but they both failed and Starmer had the smarts to be able to turn both attempts to actually improve his image. The public might be put off somebody who owns "a greenbelt field worth £10 millon"... but when that field turns out to be one that he bought to give to his mum so she could start a donkey sanctuary, the public see a man they can warm to.

The Tories have no dirt on Starmer to exploit, as they had in abundance with Corbyn. Starmer is squeaky clean and in their exchanges in Parliament, is making Johnson look the fool.... the inadequate buffoon... that he is.

If the Tories could pull a rabbit out of the hat come the next election, it'd be one hell of a trick.

If (as Harold Wilson once said) a week is a long time in politics, then four years is an eternity, or will seem like one. A lot can change between now and then, but yes, Dookie, I am confident. With reservations of course. Nothing is ever certain.

There is a lot of work to be done. Now is not a bad time to start.




PS... I'm not wishing your generation dead. There is no malice in any of these comments.... but as you recognise, it is something that can't be avoided in the greater scheme of things.
dookie 5 minutes ago
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#10New Post! Jun 27, 2020 @ 18:54:27
@Jennifer1984 Said






PS... I'm not wishing your generation dead. There is no malice in any of these comments....



Very glad you made that plain, there might well have been fisticuffs.
Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#11New Post! Jun 28, 2020 @ 05:37:00
@dookie Said

Very glad you made that plain, there might well have been fisticuffs.



I am a pacifist sir, and will not resort to fisticuffs. I would rebuff you with wit and repartee.

This reminds me of an anecdote I read about a 1960's British musician named Vivian Stanshall who carried himself with a somewhat lofty, almost aristocratic air.

He and his band were touring American and for some reason or other, found their vee-hickle being pulled over by a traffic cop somewhere in the deep south. When the cop let them off with a warning rather than give them a ticket he told Stanshall that they should be careful in this area and asked if any of the band were carrying guns. Stanshall indignantly replied:

"Most certainly not."

The cop smiled and came back with "Then how are you gonna defend yourselves?"

"With good manners, sir. Good day to you."

I can't begin to imagine what the cop must have made of that, but as brilliant ripostes go, it doesn't get much better.
dookie 5 minutes ago
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#12New Post! Jun 28, 2020 @ 08:00:44
@Jennifer1984 Said

I am a pacifist sir, and will not resort to fisticuffs. I would rebuff you with wit and repartee.

This reminds me of an anecdote I read about a 1960's British musician named Vivian Stanshall who carried himself with a somewhat lofty, almost aristocratic air.

He and his band were touring American and for some reason or other, found their vee-hickle being pulled over by a traffic cop somewhere in the deep south. When the cop let them off with a warning rather than give them a ticket he told Stanshall that they should be careful in this area and asked if any of the band were carrying guns. Stanshall indignantly replied:

"Most certainly not."

The cop smiled and came back with "Then how are you gonna defend yourselves?"

"With good manners, sir. Good day to you."

I can't begin to imagine what the cop must have made of that, but as brilliant ripostes go, it doesn't get much better.


Well, yes, a fine riposte. Possibly I am more of a realist than yourself, I think of the fate of the two guys in Easy Rider while touring the deep south of the USA. Hopefully Mr Stanshall survived to sing again.

A slight tangent, of Keef Richards, he of the Stones, being asked about his drug problems..... "I've had no problems at all with drugs, just with the cops". I think he was hauled over during a Stones tour down south, his car loaded with various dubious chemicals. Rather than a quick quip, his "riposte" had to be a large collection of Lawyers, who saved him.
Jennifer1984 On about 20 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#13New Post! Jun 28, 2020 @ 11:35:24
@dookie Said

Well, yes, a fine riposte. Possibly I am more of a realist than yourself, I think of the fate of the two guys in Easy Rider while touring the deep south of the USA. Hopefully Mr Stanshall survived to sing again.

A slight tangent, of Keef Richards, he of the Stones, being asked about his drug problems..... "I've had no problems at all with drugs, just with the cops". I think he was hauled over during a Stones tour down south, his car loaded with various dubious chemicals. Rather than a quick quip, his "riposte" had to be a large collection of Lawyers, who saved him.


Oh I can assure you that I'm a realist. I see the real world for what it is. I just don't like what I see.

There's nothing wrong with aspiring towards peaceful resolutions to armed conflict and the use of force even when you know your desires are unlikely to be fulfilled, but if nobody ever tried, nothing would ever get better.

Gandhi brought down the British empire without ever lifting a finger in anger. He inspired a billion people with a handful of salt. If he can do that, what might not be possible...?

Pacifism is not a sign of weakness and shouldn't be mistaken as such.
dookie 5 minutes ago
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#14New Post! Jun 28, 2020 @ 12:39:38
@Jennifer1984 Said

Oh I can assure you that I'm a realist. I see the real world for what it is. I just don't like what I see.

There's nothing wrong with aspiring towards peaceful resolutions to armed conflict and the use of force even when you know your desires are unlikely to be fulfilled, but if nobody ever tried, nothing would ever get better.

Gandhi brought down the British empire without ever lifting a finger in anger. He inspired a billion people with a handful of salt. If he can do that, what might not be possible...?

Pacifism is not a sign of weakness and shouldn't be mistaken as such.


I love these meandering threads. They start with Brexit and end with Gandhi and you can hardly see the join. Of course, were I another, I might well lay into Gandhi, pointing out his many flaws, seeking out a "good argument" but being me rather than another, I'll accept your point.

I'm not sure about the extent of "the possible", reality is enough to deal with. Being a Buddhist I am wary of "desires", even for the "good". The way of "no calculation" suits my couch potato perspective.
Krimmler On July 01, 2020




, United Kingdom
#15New Post! Jun 29, 2020 @ 15:16:25
Farage showed what is possible, he inspired the people of Britain to say no to the EU dictators and take back control.
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