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UK Opinion Polls raise "deep" questions!

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dookie On December 16, 2023
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#1New Post! Aug 24, 2020 @ 13:37:40
Generally, Opinion Polls have a poor reputation. Yet closer inspection shows a certain degree of accuracy.....or at least, such is the claim of the Opinion Pollsters.

At the moment in the UK the approval rating for the present Government is 29%. Disapproval stands at 49%. For Boris Johnson, his approval rating continues to plummet, while that of Opposition Leader Keir Starmer continues to rise. Those who consider Mr Starmer the best to be PM outstrips those who prefer Mr Johnson.

Yet.......as for Westminster voting intentions, the Tories remain in the lead!

So yep........most disapprove of the Govt by a mile, most see the Opposition Leader as the brightest prospect, yet more still support the Tories.

Maybe the answer to this conundrum rests with just how the questions are actually phrased?

Myself, I still think that perhapsBrexit still remains in people's minds. The staunch 40-45% in favour link that support with the Tories and their soundbite of "Get Brexit Done" (hey, let's forget about the second soundbite of an "Oven Ready Deal" ) Thus until Brexit is finally "done" their support for the Party as a Party will be virtually unwavering. But I'm no political pundit.

Anyway, I still find many of the numbers of the Polls rather strange.
Don1945 On February 08, 2021




Fort Myers, Florida
#2New Post! Aug 24, 2020 @ 15:07:09
As a lot of us Americans learned in 2016, polls can be deceptive and inaccurate. Our polls said Trump had no chance of winning, and then the hidden voters showed up and proved them wrong. (Well, Hillary DID win the most votes, but we have this stupid electoral college fiasco, so...........)
Darkman666 On about 14 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#3New Post! Aug 24, 2020 @ 15:28:41
opinion polls are general, not evidence, because companies use them to that accurate to prove something. i think people more less to fill out or ask to, more your opinion not any facts to back up your claims. if you are ask. poll companies probably cheat on them to make accurate count on them. if they show weak diagram area, that they have compromise to make higher or not include in the polls.
Jennifer1984 On July 20, 2022
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#4New Post! Aug 25, 2020 @ 06:35:14
Democracy depends on an understanding of the people's will, but there's one big problem: Often the people don't know what they want. And they can be manipulated.

I remember when the same-sex marriage bill was going through Parliament. Many polls showed the public to be not in favour of it, and yet it passed with a huge majority and with the exception of one or two instances of religious groups making a fuss, was accepted by the people with hardly a murmer.

Depending on the wording, one can easily get a majority of citizens to both support and oppose anything.

I recall two polls that were published at the time. 67% (ish. It was a long time ago now) of Britons "Opposed a law allowing same sex marriage," while 63% (ish) favoured a law "forbidding refusal of same sex marriage." This is so memorable because the two polls were printed in (different) newspapers on the same day.

The problem with asking people about same sex marriage in UK is that they inherently fell victim to a very common error in survey methods: the forbid-allow asymmetry. Britons tend to buck against the government telling people what to do. In this case, Britons generally supported gay marriage and the first poll suggested that the government was trying to tell Britons they HAD to allow gay marriage so although an individual being questioned might be in agreement with it, they didn't want to be told they HAD to accept it, whereas the second suggested that an 'agree' vote told the government that they COULDN'T stop gay people getting married. In this case, they would have been happy to pass a law that forbade Parliament to prevent it.

It's an exercise in the public asserting its authority over government.

Wording matters.

It's damned near impossible to predict what the British people really think about anything because depending on the wording of the question put to them, a poll can easily get a majority of citizens to both support and oppose any proposition


Interestingly enough, women were less immune to this effect. Women were 16% (ish) were more likely to support gay marriage, regardless of wording.

That's about as much as I can reliably remember of that time. I could write more about this, but it'd be stretching my memory of the event and it might play tricks on me.

Food for thought, anyway.
dookie On December 16, 2023
Foolish Bombu





, United Kingdom
#5New Post! Aug 25, 2020 @ 07:12:52
@Jennifer1984 Said



Wording matters.




Yes. And I would reflect upon some words of Chuang Tzu, that you cannot tell people to do whatever they want when they don’t even know what they want in the first place.

Maybe you also can't really ask them? Again, those most susceptible to all the various forms of manipulation are also those least likely to admit it or even be aware of it.

Summing up, we live in dangerous times.
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