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shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1111New Post! Apr 14, 2021 @ 16:51:04
@Jennifer1984 Said

In response to those who claim that Brexit is having no effect on the British economy, and all our current financial ills are due entirely to Coronavirus, check this out:




Britain's trade figures over the last year, starting (in the first column) from March.

You will notice that there was a sharp decline from April onwards, which accounts for the effect of Coronavirus. But look what happens in January, when Britain finally left the Single Market and Customs Union.



And shock, horror, the ONS figures for February show that Exports of goods to the EU, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, INCREASED by £3.7 billion (46.6%). Who would have thought.
Jennifer1984 On about 2 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#1112New Post! Apr 19, 2021 @ 13:17:50
@shadowen Said

And shock, horror, the ONS figures for February show that Exports of goods to the EU, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, INCREASED by £3.7 billion (46.6%). Who would have thought.



Note.... no reliable data (actually, no data at all) to support that claim. Just a lot of hot air with nothing to back it up.

I had to laugh at Priti Patel when she claimed that arrests for shoplifting had stopped. Then somebody pointed out that all the shops are closed. This is how Tories and Brexiters manipulate numbers to hide the reality


I'll repeat the graph that might shed some more relevant light on the fake Aussie's claim. Note: The source of this simple graph is the Financial Times. A reliable, authoritative source.



He clearly didn't read the graph in any depth, or analyse it in any way before bursting into print. The numbers were there for him to see and he didn't give it any thought. Rookie error.

Look at the figure of exports for December. £46612 bn. Then January £41395 bn. A loss of £5216 bn So........ even if his claim is true, then February's exports would be £45 bn (give or take).... so, still down £1600 bn from December.

Aha...!! I hear you say... but December is the month of Christmas shopping so it is to be expected that a "quiet" month like February would be down on December. OK.... we'll give you that.

So instead, look at the figures for February 2020. £52209 bn. That means February 2021 (not in the EU) is down £7209 bn on February 2020 (when we were still in the SM & CU)

Either way you dice it and slice it, trade is suffering.

Nice try, you fraud, but no cigar.
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1113New Post! Apr 19, 2021 @ 15:51:17
@Jennifer1984 Said

Note.... no reliable data (actually, no data at all) to support that claim. Just a lot of hot air with nothing to back it up.

You really are a muppet. Your source was the ONS. My source was....the same bloody ONS. So how is it that ONS figures carry weight when it suits you and then you dismiss them when they don't? You are a joke.
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1114New Post! Apr 19, 2021 @ 15:53:40
According to the EU's own figures in 2020 the average Dane was paid over seven times the salary of the average Bulgarian. Where does this factor into the EU's so called 'level playing field'? On something as simple, as basic, as wages there is clearly no level playing field within the EU. Furthermore, Brussels usually refers to the bloc as if it were one country and yet what western democracy would allow such a huge disparity in wages btw different 'states/provinces/counties'?
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1115New Post! Apr 19, 2021 @ 15:56:20
I know how much you love economic predictions. I have seen you post many of them in recent years. And yet you have ignored the latest one by the IMF. Wonder why that might be? A real head scratcher to be sure.

If you need you noggin' jogged...

Recently the IMF published their latest World Economic Outlook Projections for 2022. Some key projections for economic growth:

UK - 5.0%
EU - 3.6%
Germany - 3.1%
France - 4.1%
Italy - 3.6%
Japan - 2.4%
USA - 2.5%
Russia - 3.9%
World - 4.4%
Jennifer1984 On about 2 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#1116New Post! Apr 21, 2021 @ 14:13:55
@shadowen Said

I know how much you love economic predictions. I have seen you post many of them in recent years. And yet you have ignored the latest one by the IMF. Wonder why that might be? A real head scratcher to be sure.

If you need you noggin' jogged...

Recently the IMF published their latest World Economic Outlook Projections for 2022. Some key projections for economic growth:

UK - 5.0%
EU - 3.6%
Germany - 3.1%
France - 4.1%
Italy - 3.6%
Japan - 2.4%
USA - 2.5%
Russia - 3.9%
World - 4.4%



The IMF can produce any predictions they like. If they're so good, perhaps you could take advice from them on which lottery numbers you should pick this week.

My posts are supported by documented evidence. Yours are nothing more than what you say they are. Where is the evidence to back up your claims..? You never produce any. You're making things up out of thin air. You're the joke.


But note this......... Britain's economic growth over the next however many years will be starting from a significantly reduced base because of Brexit.

The EU has not been greatly harmed financially by Brexit. For sure, they have lost some fish and some trade, but that slack is being taken up by other EU countries happy to benefit from a competitor cutting its own throat.

Starting from a lower point, Britain has to have significant economic growth to get back to its pre-Brexit starting point.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Britain's economy has shrunk by the worst amount in the entire G7.... 8.6%. Even if the figure of 5% that you quote does materialise, our economy will still be 3.6% worse than it was before Brexit started.

Wall Street Journal - Briitish Economy Post Brexit Worst In G7

snip

The U.K.’s economy shrank more last year than any of the G-7, in what the Bank of England says will be the country’s biggest economic slump in more than 300 years.


UK On Course For Weakest Performance Of All Advanced Economies

snip

The twin challenges of the pandemic and Brexit mean the U.K. is likely to record the sharpest economic contraction among advanced economies this year, according to forecasters including the International Monetary Fund, and may take longer to claw back lost ground.


So it's funny that you should quote the IMF - without any authoritative supporting evidence (as usual) - whereas an accredited publication, says otherwise...!!


If you're going to quote figures you have to be able to back it up with some supporting evidence. Just plucking numbers out of thin air, or repeating something your mate down the pub told you after five pints of wifebeater doesn't really carry much authority.

Or credibility.
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1117New Post! Apr 23, 2021 @ 14:38:04
@Jennifer1984 Said

The IMF can produce any predictions they like. If they're so good, perhaps you could take advice from them on which lottery numbers you should pick this week.

And yet all of those economic predictions that you remoaners posted before, and post, the people's vote, in which select 'experts' spoke of catastrophic financial ramifications for leaving the EU, were presented to us as fact. Good to see you are as consistent as ever.

@Jennifer1984 Said

My posts are supported by documented evidence.

Aha. Like 2 million marchers etc.

@Jennifer1984 Said

So it's funny that you should quote the IMF - without any authoritative supporting evidence (as usual)

Go to their website. Pretty easy to find the figures I quoted.

So I have quoted the IMF economic growth forecasts for 2022

How about the forecasts of the OECD I hear you ask?
Well for this year their forecasts are as follows:

UK (yes the UK and NOT Britain as Britain is NOT a country): 5.1%
Euro area : 3.9%
Germany : 3.0%

2022
UK : 4.7%
Euro area : 3.8%
Germany : 3.7%

You're welcome.
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1118New Post! Apr 23, 2021 @ 14:39:28
"According to the EU's own figures in 2020 the average Dane was paid over seven times the salary of the average Bulgarian. Where does this factor into the EU's so called 'level playing field'? On something as simple, as basic, as wages there is clearly no level playing field within the EU. Furthermore, Brussels usually refers to the bloc as if it were one country and yet what western democracy would allow such a huge disparity in wages btw different 'states/provinces/counties'?"

What...no comment?
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1119New Post! Apr 23, 2021 @ 14:45:28
Number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered in Europe as of April 21, 2021, by country (per 100 population)

* United Kingdom: 64.69
* Germany: 28.24
* Spain: 28.87
* France: 26.22
* Italy: 26.91
* Poland: 25.09
* Hungary: 50.44
* Serbia: 46.09

Hungary showing what can be done when you don't rely on Brussels.
shadowen On April 26, 2021




Bunyip Bend, Australia
#1120New Post! Apr 23, 2021 @ 14:54:18
It's interesting the reaction to the vaccination programme of the UK compared to that of the EU. Had the roles been reversed we would be hearing of little else from rejoiners. They would be using it as an example of why an independent UK was doomed to fail and that only the autocratic EU could save the country. Only the situation isn't reversed and when europhiles aren't desperately making excuses for their beloved EU they are attempting to downplay the success of the UK's roll out. What a shock.
Jennifer1984 On about 2 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#1121New Post! May 02, 2021 @ 13:22:57
@shadowen Said

It's interesting the reaction to the vaccination programme of the UK compared to that of the EU. Had the roles been reversed we would be hearing of little else from rejoiners. They would be using it as an example of why an independent UK was doomed to fail and that only the autocratic EU could save the country. Only the situation isn't reversed and when europhiles aren't desperately making excuses for their beloved EU they are attempting to downplay the success of the UK's roll out. What a shock.



The vaccination rollout has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. And the only reason you're referring to it at all is because it is something that Boris Johnson got lucky with and can now claim to have done right.

When the Astrazenica vaccine was first created, there was a lot of concern that it hadn't been properly tested, and actually, it hadn't. To fully test any new medication takes several years and rigorous evaluation, monitoring and peer review. None of these things happened so it is reasonable to say it was not fully tested.

The EU took reasonable steps to first check whether or not they should endorse this vaccine on the basis of what was known, and whether or not to sanction its use EU-wide. Reasonable and sensible.

Johnson, on the other hand, took a punt. Without any consultation with Parliament, or adequate precaution, he committed the entire population of UK to the use of what could have been a dangerous product.

He got lucky.

It turned out that the vaccine is efficacious and does produce a good protection from the symptoms of Covid 19. Had it not been, it is possible that literally millions of people may have suffered whatever ill effects that came of it.

As I say....... Johnson got lucky and as such, is now in a position to claim that his decision was an inspired move. We are all grateful for this because nobody here wanted it to fail. Bearing in mind that we all have loved ones in vulnerable groups (eg: elderly relatives) the last thing we wanted was to be "proved right"....... and see our relatives suffer the effects of what would have been Johnson's folly.

Not that he would have taken any blame. He would immediately have blamed Astrazenica and claimed that he took their advice on the basis of the advice of his "experts" at home. Professor Chris Whitty would have been the first to be hung out to dry.

The EU rollout was not long delayed by taking the reasonable checks and controls put in place by the Union. What turned it into a problem was the failure of Astrazenica to meet the order placed by Brussels.

For some <ahem> "inexplicable" reason, all of a sudden, the Astrazenica manufacturing process began to have "production difficulties" with the EU order. Of course, there was no problem producing the UK order, even though all production was carried out on the same processing equipment. Apparently, it only broke down when it was supposed to be making vaccine for Europe's order.

Funny, that, eh..?

But at no time and in no way whatsoever was the vaccine rollout in UK any part of any Brexit process.

You must be really desperate for something to call a "success" if you're conflating the Covid vaccine with Brexit.
Jennifer1984 On about 2 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#1122New Post! May 02, 2021 @ 13:30:08
Another interesting aspect of the vaccine rollout was that when Johnson was questioned at the time about how he might be risking people's lives with an untested vaccine, he replied that he cared passionately about the lives of the people of UK and his entire motivation was to save life, not risk it.

How does that square with last week's revelations:



So....... let's see if I've got this right.......

Boris Johnson claims to "care passionately" about saving lives, and yet, when the possibility of another lockdown is discussed in Cabinet, he is prepared to - in his own words - " LET THE BODIES PILE HIGH IN THEIR THOUSANDS Rather than upset businesses again.

This isn't the claim of one bitter, ex-employee (before you say it is), this is the testimony of three people who were present at that meeting and have stated they are prepared to say so on oath...... something they may get an opportunity to do if the Electoral Commission investigation into Boris Johnson's other activities ends up putting him in front of official proceedings.

We shall await the outcome of that with interest.
nooneinparticular On May 05, 2021




, Hawaii
#1123New Post! May 04, 2021 @ 02:33:20
@shadowen Said

The project fear claims were (and are) reasonably specific both in assertions and time frame...and they have proven to be nonsense. Simples


Don't know where you got your predictions, but most of the ones I saw fell into one of two categories. Either highly specialized predictions based on very specific conditions, that attempted to trend data that was constantly changing, or posts on social media about the collapse of everything in the UK. The first typically listed time frames in the span of years, and the latter typically had sweet FA for data to back up it's usually outlandish assertions.

Quote:

The points of data are hardly isolated. Additionally, the main reasons MOST people voted to leave the EU were NOT economic. For example, for those who voted leave the single biggest reported reason was they wanted the UK to take back control. They wanted decisions about the UK to be made in the UK. They wanted UK politicians (that they could hold to account) to be making laws for the UK. They wanted UK courts to be making the legal decisions that impact upon the people of the UK. Simply by leaving the EU (including the single market) the above was achieved. Now I wouldn't call these things chickens but feel free to count away.

By the way, the most recent poll on Brexit shows that most people still want the UK out of the EU. When you see how the EU is behaving this is hardly surprising.


Okay. That wasn't even remotely what I was talking about when I was talking about counting chickens. I was referring to the idea that the 'doomsday predictions' were already proven wrong and that gloating or even declaring that they were was (and in most cases, is still) a premature exercise.
nooneinparticular On May 05, 2021




, Hawaii
#1124New Post! May 04, 2021 @ 02:48:16
@shadowen Said

Bulls***. The UK's vaccination programme has been far superior to that of the EU for a number of reasons. Firstly the UK, unlike the EU, invested a substantial amount of money in the early AZ development phase. For example, in April last year the U.K. government pledged to provide £65 million to help the University of Oxford execute its production plan. This later evolved into a fully-fledged contract between the government and the British-Swedish company. Then in May the UK signed an agreement with AstraZeneca which was a binding deal establishing "the development of a dedicated supply chain for the U.K." This gave the UK a significant advantage over the EU who had no such agreement.

Then there are the differences btw the main supply contracts signed with AZ by the UK and the EU. They are in a number of areas quite similar but with some key differences. For example, under the UK contract it is specified that AZ will supply vaccine doses from it's EU plants as well as it's UK plants to the British government in order to meet their contractual obligations. The EU contract with AZ on the other hand specifies that:

"AstraZeneca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Initial Europe Doses WITHIN the EU for distribution, and to deliver to the Distribution Hubs, following EU marketing authorization…"

There are a number of other important differences regarding the supply chain. In short the UK signed a stronger contract with AZ than did the incompetent bureaucrats in Brussels.

Now maybe like the EU you don't think contract law is important (unless it benefits the EU) or maybe you don't understand the basic concept of a contract. Could easily be both.


This was due to the differences in the nature of the contracts that AZ had with the UK and the EU.


It works very easily. The UK signed a deal with AZ covering supply chains many months before the EU did. In fact the EU's contract doesn't even specify the supply chains. Furthermore, as previously discussed, the UK's contract with AZ was stronger in key areas than the one the EU has with AZ. To you and the EU contracts may not matter, but they matter to private companies and to most governments.

During the early roll out AZ experienced a number of technical, production and logistical problems with their UK plants. These have been sorted out. Brussels came late to the party and when plants in the EU experienced variations of the same issues that had occurred in the UK the bloc demanded that they receive vaccines being made in the UK. This demand was made (and is still being made) even though the contract they have with AZ specifies that their vaccine doses are to be manufactured within the bloc. The EU wouldn't accept that their roll out, like the one in the UK, would have teething problems. Furthermore, they were of the view that if there were teething problems their vaccination supply shouldn't be impacted and that the UK should wear the consequences for the blocs actions. The arrogance is breath taking.



AZ and other companies will long remember the bullying tactics of the EU and no doubt will be far more cautious about dealing with them in the future. The EU's treatment of AZ has been appalling.





Could the UK have signed it's own independent deals with AZ and other pharmaceutical companies had they still been in the EU? Maybe. It would all be a matter of timing. The EU for example prohibits member states from signing individual contracts re covid 19 vaccines with companies that the EU already has agreements with.

The reality is that all EU member states signed up to Brussels hopelessly inadequate VPP. This was because the EU brought a LOT of pressure to bear on member states to take a 'unified' approach. Being outside of the EU meant the UK wasn't subject to this pressure and nor were they subject to any EU imposed restrictions like the one previously mentioned. So was the UK's vaccination programme the result of Brexit? No, not directly. To argue however that Brexit played no part is to place your hands over your ears whilst walking around repeating "i'm not listening" over and over and over again.


Just wondering. Were the full contracts released to the public to scrutinize? Because this certainly reads like you read them yourself.
Jennifer1984 On about 2 hours ago
Returner and proud





Penzance, United Kingdom
#1125New Post! May 04, 2021 @ 22:15:24
@nooneinparticular Said

Just wondering. Were the full contracts released to the public to scrutinize? Because this certainly reads like you read them yourself.



No, the contracts have not been revealed. That's not how Boris Johnson works. The fake Aussie is probably cribbing from the Daily Express*....... and who knows where they got their information from because those details have not been released.

Freedom of Information requests by The Guardian newspaper have been refused on the grounds of "Contract Security" on more than one occasion. But a Tory supporting paper is remarkably well informed. Hmmmmmm......

Also this comment about there being a number of "differences" between the UK and EU contracts is interesting. The EU hasn't released the details of its contracts either. But then again, nobody is asking them to, so how can they be compared to come up with these "differences"...?

Or is this Tory spin...? You can make your own mind up about the honesty and integrity of the British government.


The EU are taking legal action against Astrazenica for breach of contract law.

The UK's argument is that they got their contract in first, but that is irrelevant in Contract Law. If a contract is signed, the provider is required to fulfil it. Astrazenica failed to fulfil the EU contract, due - they claim - to "production problems".

And yet........ they had no problem fulfilling the UK's contract. Only the supplies to the EU were affected.

Boris Johnson refused to answer questions in Parliament regarding the contract details, instead, reverting to his usual "waffle, piffle, fluffle, splutter" routine. We're getting pretty familiar with that.


*interesting, don't you think, that somebody who (says he) lives on the other side of the world is remarkably au fait with information produced in an English daily newspaper.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it..?
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