View from the UK on the US Election

All rather sad.....


Optimism dies

I must confess I'm not a fan of electoral colleges where a majority popular vote doesn't necessarily result in a win for the candidate with the most votes.

But hey...it is what it is.

I had hoped I'd get up this morning, put my TV on and see Trump conceding against a backdrop of a map covered in blue. No such luck.

But Biden has a lead and it's up to Trump to overtake him. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be edging towards Biden and those EC votes will all go in the pot if Biden wins them.

Like First Past The Post, it's about getting over the finishing line.

The way I'm reading it, as I write, Biden needs 32 more EC votes.

Nevada (6)
Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (16)

..... are all showing blue on my screen at the moment. If Biden wins these, he gets his 270.

Voila..!! President Joe.

Is that right..?

That seems to be the call as far as I can determine.

This is correct. Trump will shift now as a result, from pushing an immediate end to prolonging the battle.

It’s pretty clear that the nation is divided, pretty much down the middle, and this will not change for the foreseeable future, which will make it hard for Biden to get any much needed reforms passed that the middle class so desperately needs, such as health care, safety net measures, child care, education, and so on, even further coronavirus stimulus. A Republican Senate, that continues to be led by Mitch McConnell will likely stifle any of this. And it’s not going to get any better in 2022 when midterm elections come, as most of the Senate seats up for re-election in 2022 will come from seats already held by Democrats.

However, a Biden presidency will at least get us back on the right track as far as climate change is concerned, as well as international alliances, treaties, and sanctions against Russia.

So it is better for you and the rest of the world, just not necessarily for us.

Agree your comment that a Biden win is better for UK than US.

A Trump victory would greatly help the Conservative government here get its desired trade deal with USA.... which is bad for Britain.

Biden, on the other hand is more inclined towards mending bridges with the European Union. Biden won't give Britain priority in trade negotiations. During the Brexit referendum, Obama said that if Brexit won, Britain would have to go to the back of the queue and wait their turn. I ardently hope Biden does exactly that. In political terms, anything that harms Brexit is fine by me.

Also, Biden has Irish ancestry and will defend the Good Friday Agreement against Tory attempts to wreck it for their own interests. We hope he will make any trade deal conditional on respecting the GFA.

So...... mainly from a British point of view, but also as a dedicated European, I see a Biden win as a good thing.

He will still want a trade deal with Britain and he'll obviously want to make it advantageous to USA. We wouldn't expect him to do anything less.... but he'll be very mindful of ruffling EU feathers in doing so.

The EU negotiators will know this and could play a canny game that would not only get them good agreements with US, but would also disadvantage Britain... who the EU now sees as an aggressive competitor that it is in their interests to disadvantage.

The EU will be much more amenable to working with Joe Biden. Trump is very much disliked across the European continent. There is no love lost between them and mutual distrust is clearly evident.

The other beneficial effect of a Biden win for UK / Europe, is that a defeat for Trump is a defeat for populism.

There is little doubt that the election of Trump in 2016 gave momentum to populist movements all across the continent, and there was a lot of opinion in Britain that if Trump could win a presidential election, anything was possible. That greatly encouraged the Brexit movement.

Defeating Trump won't end populism all by itself, but it would be a bloody good place to start.

Yes!

I thoroughly enjoyed seeing a video clip of Nigel Farage being savaged by Andrew Neill on Auntie yesterday, who - as a final shot - got under Farage's skin by goading him that "after four years of telling us all to suck it up and accept the result, you seem reluctant to accept the will of the American people".

Ouch.

Andrew Neill is not always to my taste. Jo Coburn is far more incisive and intelligent in her interviews. She asks the really probative questions. Laura Kuenssberg she aint.

But Andrew Neill does have that bit of devil in him and comparing Farages' salmon-faced outrage at Trump not being given this election because it's his God-given right, with his sneering, triumphalist attitude ever since the 2016 Brexit referendum, he left the nicotine stained man-frog almost purple with apoplexy.

When is 'the will of the people' not the will of the people, Nigel...? "When my cause is losing" would seem to be the answer.

I wish I could find this clip again, but it seems to have vanished into Aunties labyrinthine neural pathways and is eluding my attempts to re-find it so I can post it here for everybody to enjoy.

I do so hope I can locate it again. It is delicious.

The Man Frog Is Put On The Spot By Andrew Niell


I have now found this. It's not the full interview though. It's only a short clip that ties Farage up in knots over the allegations of voter fraud.

Andrew Niell's zinger came at the end of this interview, but that seems to have been edited out or missed off by the poster.

Really..... you couldn't make this stuff up.