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Leon On about 2 hours ago




San Diego, California
#511New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 00:12:50
@chaski Said

The polls were wrong?

And I thought Trump was president these last 3+ years.

Silly me.


The polls were NOT wrong.

And the reason Trump is Prez is because of the electoral college. The popular vote result was the same as the polls (which predict the popular vote result) were near Election Day 2016.

Now there may have been analytical pundits and bookies that inaccurately based their prediction of the victor based on these polls, but that is not what the polls themselves were doing, nor was I disputing that those pundits and bookies were wrong.
chaski On October 29, 2020
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#512New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 00:58:17
@Leon Said

The polls were NOT wrong.
.



The polls WERE wrong. Trump won.

@Leon Said
the reason Trump is Prez is because of the electoral college


Yes.

@Leon Said

The popular vote result was the same as the polls (which predict the popular vote result) were near Election Day 2016.


The polls indicated that she would win.

The fact that the pollsters didn't dig down deep enough to consider the EC thing is really irrelevant.

I suppose you could blame the analysts if that makes you feel better about it, but the reality is that the polls were pointing towards a Clinton win, but she lost.



And it could easily happen again.
Leon On about 2 hours ago




San Diego, California
#513New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 01:34:30
@chaski Said

The polls WERE wrong. Trump won.



Yes.



The polls indicated that she would win.

The fact that the pollsters didn't dig down deep enough to consider the EC thing is really irrelevant.

I suppose you could blame the analysts if that makes you feel better about it, but the reality is that the polls were pointing towards a Clinton win, but she lost.



And it could easily happen again.


The polls ask a sample population that is reflective of the voting population as a whole if they would vote for one candidate or vote for the other. And the raw results are posted. And that’s it. Nowhere in the process are these results skewed to factor in electoral college dynamics...never have, never will. It is news outlets and people like you who want to to mean something more and make it to mean something more. But in reality, data is data, and doesn’t pretend to be anything else. And as it turns out, in this particular instance, it was accurate in its reflection of the actual results of the national popular vote.

It shouldn’t be surprising either. Several polls are churned out weekly leading up to the election, and, as anyone who understands basic statistics know, the more frequent sampling we have, the closer we come to predicting actual results.

People were shocked because they didn’t realize the degree that the electoral college can be different than the popular vote result, not because of the results of the popular vote results themselves, which again mirrored the polls, like they were supposed to.

The electoral college is much, much harder to predict, and isn’t, therefore, as exact a science. This is dependent on state polls, which are NOT churned out every week, MUCH LESS several each week, MUCH LESS all the week or two before the election. If they were all these, we wouldn’t be dependent on analysts to give us their arbitrary take on predicting the victor instead like we are.

So you can still trust the polls. Is is the disinformation campaign of Trump that wants you to believe their are silent voters that are not in polls. Looks like this has been successful. There are not silent voters, just as there were not in 2016. People just didn’t fully understand the electoral college is all.

Therefore, in predicting the national popular vote: Clinton’s lead was 2 points in polling and results. Biden’s lead is 9.7 points.

(Note, I’m now putting on my own analyst spin): This is a huge difference and likely to be enough to overcome any electoral college dynamics that gave Trump the victory in 2016.
chaski On October 29, 2020
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#514New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 01:38:18
@Leon Said

The polls ask a sample population that is reflective of the voting population as a whole if they would vote for one candidate or vote for the other. And the raw results are posted. And that’s it. Nowhere in the process are these results skewed to factor in electoral college dynamics...never have, never will. It is news outlets and people like you who want to to mean something more and make it to mean something more. But in reality, data is data, and doesn’t pretend to be anything else. And as it turns out, in this particular instance, it was accurate in its reflection of the actual results of the national popular vote...




Yes. I get all that.

As with all things the "blame" or "praise" goes to the human beings who are making the prognostications based on the data.

None the less the data and the prognosticators strongly suggested that Hillary would win.

They were wrong.
mrmhead On about 4 hours ago




NE, Ohio
#515New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 01:40:51
@Leon Said

The polls were NOT wrong.

And the reason Trump is Prez is because of the electoral college. The popular vote result was the same as the polls (which predict the popular vote result) were near Election Day 2016.

Now there may have been analytical pundits and bookies that inaccurately based their prediction of the victor based on these polls, but that is not what the polls themselves were doing, nor was I disputing that those pundits and bookies were wrong.

@chaski Said

The polls WERE wrong. Trump won.



Yes.



The polls indicated that she would win.

The fact that the pollsters didn't dig down deep enough to consider the EC thing is really irrelevant.

I suppose you could blame the analysts if that makes you feel better about it, but the reality is that the polls were pointing towards a Clinton win, but she lost.



And it could easily happen again.


I'd have to go with the margin of error thing and say the polls were Not Right

But only if you looked at the cat in the box.
Leon On about 2 hours ago




San Diego, California
#516New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 01:51:36
@mrmhead Said

I'd have to go with the margin of error thing and say the polls were Not Right

But only if you looked at the cat in the box.


In this instance, the margin of error wasn’t even relevant, as it was pretty much right on the bulls eye.
Leon On about 2 hours ago




San Diego, California
#517New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 01:54:44
At any rate, I’m not complaining about the misconception here. At least the shock gets the otherwise complacent to go and vote. Nobody is taking anything for granted, which is a good thing.
darkman666 On about 2 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#518New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 02:25:42
I watched Trump's town nonsense hall crap was nothing.

I think bozo called stormy to hired one her black hooker to sit behind him. like a black person really going to believe a young black woman with a orange mask that shaking her head up and down and agreed with him for an hour, and not get paid for it. Right !!!
Leon On about 2 hours ago




San Diego, California
#519New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 18:10:18
@darkman666 Said

I watched Trump's town nonsense hall crap was nothing.

I think bozo called stormy to hired one her black hooker to sit behind him. like a black person really going to believe a young black woman with a orange mask that shaking her head up and down and agreed with him for an hour, and not get paid for it. Right !!!


I watched both. Biden’s was particularly good, because he was able to really spell out some of his plans when addressing voters’ concerns. In fact, I liked it so much that I think we should make a permanent move to this format rather than debates where everyone is interrupting each other and trying to fit in sound bytes within their limited time spurts.

I also like how George Stephanopoulos let Biden talk however long he wanted on each subject without interruption. Trump’s moderator was more combative, but perhaps that was warranted with the constant bulls*** he spews out.
darkman666 On about 2 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#520New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 19:40:28
@Leon Said

I watched both. Biden’s was particularly good, because he was able to really spell out some of his plans when addressing voters’ concerns. In fact, I liked it so much that I think we should make a permanent move to this format rather than debates where everyone is interrupting each other and trying to fit in sound bytes within their limited time spurts.

I also like how George Stephanopoulos let Biden talk however long he wanted on each subject without interruption. Trump’s moderator was more combative, but perhaps that was warranted with the constant bulls*** he spews out.


I was impressed how fast nbc put together, you realize bozo's moderator choose that morning. she handle herself very well.

expect for her,the audience look like they were actors. the hour look like it was rig.

I am glad that I watched the first hour with bozo the clown. like I figure he was going to be preciditable and a clown. I didn't why I watched the split screen, it wasn't necessary.

the second hour with joe, with like watching a mature man with nonsense.
mrmhead On about 4 hours ago




NE, Ohio
#521New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 20:34:19
@darkman666 Said

I was impressed how fast nbc put together, you realize bozo's moderator choose that morning. she handle herself very well.

expect for her,the audience look like they were actors. the hour look like it was rig.

I am glad that I watched the first hour with bozo the clown. like I figure he was going to be preciditable and a clown. I didn't why I watched the split screen, it wasn't necessary.

the second hour with joe, with like watching a mature man with nonsense.



My guess is the guests were screened, or selected by team trump
mrmhead On about 4 hours ago




NE, Ohio
#522New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 20:37:38
In the area I live is a lot of trump signs (mostly)

On a brighter note,
I had to go into work today, and saw a lot of Biden signs in the neighborhood I drove through.
darkman666 On about 2 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#523New Post! Oct 16, 2020 @ 21:16:13
@mrmhead Said

My guess is the guests were screened, or selected by team trump



if you know notice the man with glasses behind bozo, was switched by the old lady with the question.

both town Halls were a big flop in the rating. like I figured.

two hours with joe was 12 millions, and bozo's one hour was 10 millions.

this would be impressive, if these were two tv shows were premiering last night.
mrmhead On about 4 hours ago




NE, Ohio
#524New Post! Oct 19, 2020 @ 16:29:41
I voted today!
About 1/2 hour wait.
Poll worker said they were getting around 1,000 people a day (ranged from ~800 to ~1200)
chaski On October 29, 2020
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#525New Post! Oct 20, 2020 @ 00:42:51
I read an article today that posited the idea that "what if Trump loses and Trump just says "f*** it" and moves down to Mar-a-Lago for the rest of his presidency... and just doesn't do anything... checks out... "F you 'Merica!"


Yes... it is unlikely stupid BS... but the idea gave me a laugh.
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