Yet what do you look to to disparage yellowhammer? Facts and figures? Or feelings about how predictions, and by extension analytics, are unreliable?
Yep, i went with facts. Like the FACT that the yellowsnow authors made predictions about traffic flow in Calais in a no deal scenario despite never visiting the Port, nor even speaking to anyone there.
The FACTS were that the PoC authority had built (well away from the Port itself) an area for HGVs that did not present with the correct paperwork. This was done specifically to ensure min disruption to traffic flow through the port. They have increased staff numbers. FACT. They have stress tested their contingency plans both by using computers AND by using over 800 trucks. And they have done this multiple times. FACT. etc etc etc. Now I am not going to go over yellowsnow all over again. But if you bother to go back and read what i posted i did go with FACTS.
Despite the fact that you yourself said, while disparaging the unreliability of predictive models, that predictions of the future are difficult and unreliable, you believe in the predictive powers of a port authority to correctly and sufficiently handle the problems that may arise from a FUTURE event?
What I essentially said was that there were no REASONABLE grounds for believing the chaos being predicted by the yellowsnow authors. There was (and is) however, based on FACTS, cause to believe on reasonable grounds that the PoCA would be able to minimise disruptions to the movement of HGVs.
If I've got it so wrong and have "never been able to give any evidence" of your hypocrisy, then what would you call holding others to a higher standard of proof than yourself?
Only I dont and as always you NEVER provide any evidence to back up what you say. Your verbiage is based simply on your feelings.
Of requesting data from Jennifer but using feelings to dictate your own arguments?
Bollocks. Come on then, give a bloody example. Again, you are the one whose posts seem driven by feelings with bugger all 'facts'.
Of saying that predicting the future is difficult but believing, based on nothing, that the port authority that 'supposedly' disproves yellowhammer has cracked the secret to a field in which all of the 'experts' are bogus frauds?
Are you for real? Firstly are you calling civil servants with no experience in logistics 'experts' when it comes to logistics?
I gave many reasons which were/are based on facts re why I think the PoCA is a more reliable source of information re how traffic of HGVs MIGHT be effected by a no deal scenario. Now if you want to place greater weight on the opinions of civil servants who have no experience in logistics, who never visited the Port nor even spoke to anyone from the PoCA then that says far more about you than it does about me.