A friend of mine says that if the Tories win, Britain leaves the EU at the end of 2020. If Labour wins, they hold a second referendum. If the Liberal Democrats win, they cancel Brexit.
Which of these three events is going to occur?
At this time, much to my disappointment, it looks as if the Tories will win a working majority which will result in a Brexit. If Boris Johnson gets his way, it would be a hard Brexit, which means no withdrawal agreement and a verrrrrrrrry long and drawn out period where the Tories will attempt to get a free trade agreement with an EU that is reluctant to give them "cake and eat it."
Ask yourself this: If you were the owner of, say, a gym club and a member told you they want to leave, stop paying membership fees and have no obligations to the club but they still want all the benefits of being a member, would you let them..?
What would those who are still paying a membership think..?
This is what Boris Johnson wants. Benefits of membership without payment or obligation to the Four Freedoms.
It is extremely unlikely that the Liberal Democrats will form a government. They sold their soul during the coalition government of 2010- 15 and have not been forgiven for their part in Austerity and the introduction of Student Tuition Fees. Revocation of Article 50 is not expected.
A Labour win is possible but much less likely than a Conservative win. In any case, Jeremy Corbyn wants Brexit as much as Boris Johnson does, but for different reasons. Corbyn sees the EU as a barrier to a truly Socialist state and he wants no impediments to having (what he sees as) a truly Socialist Britain.
Labour have, however, been boxed into a corner and have now committed to trying to get an early arrangement with the EU that would then be put to the people in a second referendum with Remain on the ballot paper.
At this time, the polls say that there is now a clear majority of the public who would vote to remain. Possibly in excess of 60%. If that is right, it would be a massive swing. I, however, am skeptical of polls.
If a hung Parliament is returned (no overall majority by any party), it is probable that the minor parties, such as the Liberal Democrats, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, the Northern Ireland parties and the Greens, will hold the balance of power. If that occurs, a second In/Out referendum is a certainty. The Scots will also want a second independence referendum (Indyref 2) which is overwhelmingly likely (cast iron certain, in my opinion) to cause the break up of the United Kingdom.
There are all sorts of opinions being put out and all sorts of commentators and analysts are chipping in with their five bobs worth but nobody can be sure. The early hours of Friday 13th December will tell us.
I'm hoping for a hung Parliament to ensure that second referendum, but I'm not optimistic.