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Threat and suppression probabilities

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Conflict On about 5 hours ago




Alcalá de Henares, Spain
#1New Post! Nov 27, 2019 @ 20:09:13
I read about statistical probabilities of success in the novelization of Terminator 3 and I thought I would share my own about people, in terms of threat assessment.

Let's take Arnold Schwarzenegger and follow the lines as written in the aforesaid novel.

According to his age, He is 72. I have a number of theories...

1) There is a 72% probability that someone could overpower him, with a 28% margin of error, depending on the circumstances.

2) He poses a 47% threat with a 72% margin of error, based on the availability of weapons and perhaps his body builder's physique.

How sound are my theories. What are your own?
darkman666 On about 6 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#2New Post! Nov 27, 2019 @ 21:09:55
Arnold probably keep in shape on regular basis, but I never heard
of him in a real fight on conflict before. in some ways, you be impress by Arnold what he accomplishments in personal life.
mrmhead On 19 minutes ago




NE, Ohio
#3New Post! Nov 27, 2019 @ 22:09:03
@Conflict Said

I read about statistical probabilities of success in the novelization of Terminator 3 and I thought I would share my own about people, in terms of threat assessment.

Let's take Arnold Schwarzenegger and follow the lines as written in the aforesaid novel.

According to his age, He is 72. I have a number of theories...

1) There is a 72% probability that someone could overpower him, with a 28% margin of error, depending on the circumstances.

2) He poses a 47% threat with a 72% margin of error, based on the availability of weapons and perhaps his body builder's physique.

How sound are my theories. What are your own?


Those are some pretty high margins of error. May as well flip a 3-sided coin.
chaski On 35 minutes ago
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#4New Post! Nov 27, 2019 @ 23:52:12
@Conflict Said

I read about statistical probabilities of success in the novelization of Terminator 3 and I thought I would share my own about people, in terms of threat assessment.

Let's take Arnold Schwarzenegger and follow the lines as written in the aforesaid novel.

According to his age, He is 72. I have a number of theories...

1) There is a 72% probability that someone could overpower him, with a 28% margin of error, depending on the circumstances.

2) He poses a 47% threat with a 72% margin of error, based on the availability of weapons and perhaps his body builder's physique.

How sound are my theories. What are your own?


I have not read the "novelization of Terminator 3", so perhaps my position is one of ignorance. That said...

1. I get that the real Arnold Schwarzenegger (the person) is 72 years old. However, Schwarzenegger's age has nothing whatever to do with the age of the Terminator (model T-800 if I have that right) character in the story. In the story, the age of the outer skin of the Terminator is actually irrelevant to "his" abilities.

2. From the various movies, even the T-1000 had difficulty in overpowering the Terminator.

3. Now, if the "probability" of over powering the Terminator is 72% with a 28% marine of error... you are saying that the range is that the Terminator might have a 100% chance of being overpowered or might have a 44% chance of being overpowered. So if you were gambling on this you would be a fool... unless some other fool gave you a 100% point spread...

4. Being a cyborg (or whatever) the Terminator's body building physique is irrelevant... look at the T-1000, the T-X and the T-3000... each of these were supposed to be more advanced and more deadly than the T-8000. Not one of them actually had a body building physique.

So... I think the probability that someone could overpower, at least in the case of the T-800 actually hinges on the T-800's humanization... which actually "strengthens" the T-800... that is, the gradual process of becoming more human-like (adopting both the "thinking" characteristics of human, as well as the coding changes to protect humans (not randomly kill human + protecting certain humans) actually makes the T-800 a more efficient "fighter" who is more likely to NOT be overcome in battle (whether against humans or against other Terminator models).

etc.

But maybe I missed your point...
chaski On 35 minutes ago
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#5New Post! Nov 28, 2019 @ 04:37:55
@chaski Said

each of these were supposed to be more advanced and more deadly than the T-8000.



Sorry... typo on that line... should be "T-800".
darkman666 On about 6 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#6New Post! Nov 28, 2019 @ 05:01:15
part of the problem to me with in terminator movies is lack of dialog in them. the first one - I saw it on tv for the first time. I changed the channel in the first 45 minutes, when Arnold drive a patrol car in the police station. I was thinking who's cares, where the dialog in the movie. I eventually saw the rest of the movie over the years. then I saw 2 and 3, it combine with a stupid storyline and all action. not a great action pack. a great pack similar and better in the matrix 1 & 2. I just find no have decent dialog in a storyline, what the point of like it.
Conflict On about 5 hours ago




Alcalá de Henares, Spain
#7New Post! Nov 28, 2019 @ 20:04:37
@chaski Said

I have not read the "novelization of Terminator 3", so perhaps my position is one of ignorance. That said...

1. I get that the real Arnold Schwarzenegger (the person) is 72 years old. However, Schwarzenegger's age has nothing whatever to do with the age of the Terminator (model T-800 if I have that right) character in the story. In the story, the age of the outer skin of the Terminator is actually irrelevant to "his" abilities.

2. From the various movies, even the T-1000 had difficulty in overpowering the Terminator.

3. Now, if the "probability" of over powering the Terminator is 72% with a 28% marine of error... you are saying that the range is that the Terminator might have a 100% chance of being overpowered or might have a 44% chance of being overpowered. So if you were gambling on this you would be a fool... unless some other fool gave you a 100% point spread...

4. Being a cyborg (or whatever) the Terminator's body building physique is irrelevant... look at the T-1000, the T-X and the T-3000... each of these were supposed to be more advanced and more deadly than the T-8000. Not one of them actually had a body building physique.

So... I think the probability that someone could overpower, at least in the case of the T-800 actually hinges on the T-800's humanization... which actually "strengthens" the T-800... that is, the gradual process of becoming more human-like (adopting both the "thinking" characteristics of human, as well as the coding changes to protect humans (not randomly kill human + protecting certain humans) actually makes the T-800 a more efficient "fighter" who is more likely to NOT be overcome in battle (whether against humans or against other Terminator models).

etc.

But maybe I missed your point...


Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I was referring to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actual human being. I was considering him as an opponent of someone with higher energy levels, who wouldn't run the risk of overexertion or worse due to old age.
darkman666 On about 6 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#8New Post! Nov 28, 2019 @ 20:45:26
interesting Arnold and these reboot movies of team up with action pack of heroes. are the actors, who played them. Arnold actually fought them in real life, he take some of them. like Jason statham, chuck Norris, jet li , or Jackie chan,he would have problems with them in hand to hand combat.
chaski On 35 minutes ago
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#9New Post! Nov 28, 2019 @ 21:40:58
@Conflict Said

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I was referring to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actual human being. I was considering him as an opponent of someone with higher energy levels, who wouldn't run the risk of overexertion or worse due to old age.



OK.

I bet he can/could beat the crap out of the vast majority of 72 year old men.
Conflict On about 5 hours ago




Alcalá de Henares, Spain
#10New Post! Nov 28, 2019 @ 23:27:47
@chaski Said

OK.

I bet he can/could beat the crap out of the vast majority of 72 year old men.


Interesting. So, for men of his own age, he could be more than a match for them?

What would you say the probability of a possible heart attack or other health risk would be for him or his opponent of equal age?
chaski On 35 minutes ago
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#11New Post! Nov 29, 2019 @ 00:40:49
@Conflict Said

Interesting. So, for men of his own age, he could be more than a match for them?


And likely some men 5 or 10 years younger.

@Conflict Said


What would you say the probability of a possible heart attack or other health risk would be for him or his opponent of equal age?


I don't know the probability... would have to research a number of things from his family history of cardiovascular demise to age of death.... then the impact of steroid usage for 5 to 10 years (just guessing that he used steroids back in his days of competition... and smoking cigars... and (possibly) drinking)..

...oh, and he was (reportedly) born with a heart defect... but had corrective surgery in 2018...

...and those things balanced against a life time of exercise and (probably) good quality food...

But he still looks to be in pretty good shape in terms of strength...
darkman666 On about 6 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#12New Post! Nov 29, 2019 @ 04:47:05
the topic should more how long a 72 years old man last in a fight? let Arnold keep in shape that he was in boxing ring. could Arnold last the 15 around with 20's or 30's boxer in a boxing ring?

if only talking about Arnold fighting another 72 years old than you have look at it the strength of each person and the duration that apply to anyone younger than Arnold is a factor.

it was like a bar fight, just happen. who knows what happen Arnold could win by his skills as well as street smart. the opponent just use street smart and fight dirty.

I think depend on the circumstances that Arnold is facing.
Conflict On about 5 hours ago




Alcalá de Henares, Spain
#13New Post! Nov 29, 2019 @ 20:50:53
@chaski Said

And likely some men 5 or 10 years younger.



I don't know the probability... would have to research a number of things from his family history of cardiovascular demise to age of death.... then the impact of steroid usage for 5 to 10 years (just guessing that he used steroids back in his days of competition... and smoking cigars... and (possibly) drinking)..

...oh, and he was (reportedly) born with a heart defect... but had corrective surgery in 2018...

...and those things balanced against a life time of exercise and (probably) good quality food...

But he still looks to be in pretty good shape in terms of strength...


Yes, I would agree with you. The most important thing is to factor in issues of health. They can be determiners of what could happen.

Now, let's consider the threat posed by his children. That's a much easier, or harder issue to contend with, as the variables of a scenario involving them would be very unpredictable.

Take for instance, his daughter Katherine. She was born 1989, making her 30 years of age. In theory, this could mean that in a hand to hand conflict, there would be a 30% chance a person her father's age could overpower her with a 20% margin of error if we factor in her age and whether or not she could gain the upper hand in a close encounter with him.

On other hand, given the element of surprise, there is an 89% chance she could be overpowered with an 11% margin of error, given his greater experience, or knowhow of stealth tactics.
chaski On 35 minutes ago
Stalker





Tree at Floydgirrl's Window,
#14New Post! Nov 29, 2019 @ 21:24:26
@Conflict Said

Yes, I would agree with you. The most important thing is to factor in issues of health. They can be determiners of what could happen.

Now, let's consider the threat posed by his children. That's a much easier, or harder issue to contend with, as the variables of a scenario involving them would be very unpredictable.

Take for instance, his daughter Katherine. She was born 1989, making her 30 years of age. In theory, this could mean that in a hand to hand conflict, there would be a 30% chance a person her father's age could overpower her with a 20% margin of error if we factor in her age and whether or not she could gain the upper hand in a close encounter with him.

On other hand, given the element of surprise, there is an 89% chance she could be overpowered with an 11% margin of error, given his greater experience, or knowhow of stealth tactics.



I'm not sure that age and the difference in age actually equate to the probablyility of whether a person would be overpowered.

It has been said that Old age and treachery will always overcome youth and vigor.

For example: I am in my 60+ (contrary to my TFS profile). I am in pretty good shape; both in terms of strength and aerobics. I lift weights, and while I no longer run marathons I can (and have) out hiked men well younger than I. A friend once called me a "camel" in reference to my endurance.

(Side note: My older by 4 years brother leaves me in the dust hiking (though he hasn't been tested in either deserts nor in jungles) and bicycling... but he wouldn't dare trying to get in a fist fight with me. Not that we would ever fight each other... our bond is too great.)

Now, in a fight I am confident that I would not be overcome by most younger men. The lesser part of that has to do with my physical conditioning and/or fighting ability. Mostly it is because I wouldn't fight fair. I am at an age that regardless of my physical conditioning and experience in martial arts, it takes longer and longer to heal "wounds" as compared to when I was younger. Point being, realistically at this age I cannot "afford" to be injured. So in a fight I would not "fight fair". I would use trickery, misdirection, deceit... I would bring a gun to a knife fight. To paraphrase, he who runs away, lives....

Note: Of course to begin with and in reality, I avoid conflict/confrontation whenever possible, which is pretty much always. So, all of that is really meaningless.


Addition/edit: Having said all that it is my sense that most men (i.e. male humans) are at their core wimps and cowards. I know that is a horrible thing to say. Some act like tough guys... some act like bullies... some think being rude and not being "PC" is cool... etc... all of that boils down to cowardice IMO. Something like 50.4% of the world's human population is male. Maybe 3% of those men have (metaphorically speaking) a set of balls. I used to think that in the USA it was about 10% of men who had a set of balls, but I was wrong in that thinking... in the USA that number is probably closer to 5%. But that is a different thread.
darkman666 On about 6 hours ago




Saint Louis, Missouri
#15New Post! Nov 29, 2019 @ 21:27:01
@Conflict Said

Yes, I would agree with you. The most important thing is to factor in issues of health. They can be determiners of what could happen.

Now, let's consider the threat posed by his children. That's a much easier, or harder issue to contend with, as the variables of a scenario involving them would be very unpredictable.

Take for instance, his daughter Katherine. She was born 1989, making her 30 years of age. In theory, this could mean that in a hand to hand conflict, there would be a 30% chance a person her father's age could overpower her with a 20% margin of error if we factor in her age and whether or not she could gain the upper hand in a close encounter with him.

On other hand, given the element of surprise, there is an 89% chance she could be overpowered with an 11% margin of error, given his greater experience, or knowhow of stealth tactics.



women take self defense courses that martial laws. she learn kickboxing. so, Arnold taught or someone teach her self-defense. she be able defense or kick serious ass, she was taught when I was a child grow up.

Arnold and her and Arnold to her, " no hard barred " mean she probably could beat him. with the factor of youth, speed, and duration. the only thing, I could beat him. how Arnold is defeat her. Arnold just hold her between his arms, and hold down.

Arnold just had to keep her at bay and literally with his arms , and keep her for using her legs. Arnold just has hold her enough to knock the wind out of her, and for her to passed out.
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