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War Hypothesis Revisited

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4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#1New Post! Oct 23, 2019 @ 05:19:28
Let's see if we can build a war hypothesis together. For our Hypothesis to become a Theory we should be able to explain current political events and possibly predict future events.
Let's start with the abandonment of the Kurds leading to the current expanding of the conflagration in Syria. If we take this action in the context of recent events perhaps we will gain a different perspective.
The recent events in the region are the attacks on Saudi flagged tankers in the gulf. the disappearance of a exiled Saudi journalist in Turkey, an attack against a Saudi oil processing facility and an attack on a Iranian tanker.
mrmhead 3 minutes ago




NE, Ohio
#2New Post! Oct 23, 2019 @ 11:59:12
If Trump does have a plan, he sure conceals it well under the guise of chaos.

Pulling troops out of Syria to "Bring the boys back home"
But... we'll still leave some in Syria to protect the oil.
And... we'll move some to Iraq to help suppress ISIS (which he said has been defeated)
However... Iraq says they don't have permission.
While... we deploy more troops to Saudi Arabia.

So we can remove "Get out of endless wars" as a reason.

I remember when we invaded Iraq for the second time, someone said "We'll be there for 100 years."

"Nothing helps a sagging economy like a good war" also seems to have lost its bite in the modern times.
It may be good for a few industries or companies, but it's no longer enough to prop up a whole economy.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#3New Post! Oct 24, 2019 @ 02:24:45
Chaos is right. I would say one thing about the move to pull back and let the Turks in; everyone is going to forget about the other stuff for sure. No one is talking about the strikes against the tankers or the oil processing facility anymore. Even the death of the journalist has taken a back seat in the news. The movie called "Manufacturing Consent" by Noam Chomsky is a good investment of ones time.
I guess the thing is, they feel very strongly about diverting attention away from something there and are willing to go to great lengths to do it-- it's bigger than most know. They are concerned with more than one level of audience here.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#4New Post! Nov 05, 2019 @ 04:16:45
Here's a thought on war and the threat of war. The sociological affect on the mass populace. Usually during a war the populace will begin to lean toward social conservative thought. The Cold War was a time in the US when those opposed to the government would be considered unpatriotic no matter what the government did. Of course there is always that element in society, but they begin to have more influence when there is fear in the air.
The missile attacks on the tankers in the gulf would help the Theocracy in Iran if people there start fearing an attack by the US and it's allies. It would help crush any ongoing civil rights movements and those opposed to the Ayatollah and his government.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#5New Post! Nov 09, 2019 @ 04:11:13
It is important to remember that most despots are not all that interested in the opinions of the world outside their domain. A good example of this is Kim Jong Un and his father Kim Jong Il. If you read the things they say or have said in the news they rarely seem to make any sense. Understanding they are really only interested in the perceptions of their own subjects brings to light what they are doing. They have their own monologue or story if you will. In North Korea children are taught in school that South Korea started the war and Kim Jong Sun defeated the aggressors and saved their nation. The programming of their own people and the continuation of that charade is paramount. We've all seen people lie behind someone's back and then try to create situations or present false monologue in front of friends to perpetuate their lie. It's no different when certain nation states start saber rattling. It's almost laughable until you realize the plight of the people living in those nations.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#6New Post! Nov 12, 2019 @ 03:57:42
One misconception about war is that it helps the nation's economy; this is not true. It helps the economy of the companies that supply materials and weapons but is an economic burden on the government and on the taxpayers. Prolonged warfare especially resulting in a loss or perceived loss is one of the preconditions for internal revolution. The Nazis blamed the Weimar Republic for the loss of WWI and in particular Kaiser Wilhelm II and used it to justify their takeover.
(It's a bit misleading as the Weimar Republic did not exist until after WWI, the German states having been designated as the Deutches Reich prior to 1918. Of course after the initiation of the Third Reich blame was shifted to the Jews.)
The point is that a protracted war, especially one that is a loss or no gain can be used as an impetus for revolution. One might consider Vietnam and the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq here. The national debt suffers from these conflicts; projecting war and power to the other side of the globe is extremely expensive, a burden that will be carried mostly by the taxpayer.
It is also important to note the loss of life and limb of the veterans. The draft or forced conscription makes the matter worse in the eyes of the populace. The current conflicts used contractors to offset manpower requirements that traditionally would have been filled by draftees.
mrmhead 3 minutes ago




NE, Ohio
#7New Post! Nov 12, 2019 @ 13:42:28
@4d4m Said

One misconception about war is that it helps the nation's economy; this is not true. It helps the economy of the companies that supply materials and weapons but is an economic burden on the government and on the taxpayers. Prolonged warfare especially resulting in a loss or perceived loss is one of the preconditions for internal revolution. The Nazis blamed the Weimar Republic for the loss of WWI and in particular Kaiser Wilhelm II and used it to justify their takeover.
(It's a bit misleading as the Weimar Republic did not exist until after WWI, the German states having been designated as the Deutches Reich prior to 1918. Of course after the initiation of the Third Reich blame was shifted to the Jews.)
The point is that a protracted war, especially one that is a loss or no gain can be used as an impetus for revolution. One might consider Vietnam and the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq here. The national debt suffers from these conflicts; projecting war and power to the other side of the globe is extremely expensive, a burden that will be carried mostly by the taxpayer.
It is also important to note the loss of life and limb of the veterans. The draft or forced conscription makes the matter worse in the eyes of the populace. The current conflicts used contractors to offset manpower requirements that traditionally would have been filled by draftees.


I think the "War is good for the economy" idea started to fade in the late 20th century.

War has become more efficient.
We no longer have to replace hundreds/thousands of planes and tanks ... and people... to maintain a war.

There is also a much, much smaller deployment and casualty rate now. So it is more "tolerable" (and probably even forgotten) for much of the population.

As you say, it only really benefits military contractors.
So rather than the money cycle reaching the majority of Americans through work salaries, it is coming from the taxpayers and going to the big military suppliers - who then buy the politicians .. and the cycle continues.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#8New Post! Nov 12, 2019 @ 18:49:11
All this is true. There is dissent on the reliability of statistics provided by the government concerning the current conflicts.

Vietnam US Casualties
58,318 KIA or non-combat deaths (including the missing and deaths in captivity)[68]
153,303 WIA (excluding 150,332 persons not requiring hospital care
Note : the ratio of draftee to volunteer casualties is approximately 30/70


Iraq
7,761 contractors had been injured in Iraq
Contractors are "Americans, Iraqis and workers from more than three dozen other countries."[65]10,569 wounded or injured
US Armed Forces Personnel there were 4,424 total deaths (including both killed in action and non-hostile) and 31,952 wounded in action (WIA)

Afghanistan
As of July 7, 2018, there have been 2,372 U.S. military deaths in the War in Afghanistan. 1,856 of these deaths have been the result of hostile action.
20,320 American service members have also been wounded in action during the war.[1]In addition, there were 1,720 U.S. civilian contractor fatalities.

Classified US military documents released by WikiLeaks in October 2010, recorded 176,382 injuries,
including 99,163 civilian injuries between January 2004 and December 2009

Sources are Wikipedia, US Department of Defense, Iraq Body Count Project and Casualties.org.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#9New Post! Nov 13, 2019 @ 07:27:13
The idea about war being good for the economy is probably a misinterpretation of the book " War is a Racket " by General Smedley Butler. Mr Butler was one of the most decorated US serviceman of all time. He was a US Marine officer, the Commandant of the USMC and two time Medal of Honor winner.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smedley_Butler
In 1934 Smedley Butler went to Congress claiming he had been approached by business leaders that wanted to create a fascist takeover of the United States (modeled after those in Germany, Italy and Spain) and for him to be it's figurehead leader with the VFW as its' army. Congress formed the McCormick-d***stein committee ( of course ) to investigate his claims. The committee declared the whole thing a hoax. In 1966 under the Freedom of Information Act a memo was found from said committee that in secret said his story was in fact true. This lead to a book called " The Plot to Seize the White House " by Jules Archer.
https://clubhousewreckards.com/plot/plottoseizethewhitehouse.htm
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#10New Post! Nov 14, 2019 @ 00:37:45
The idea of revolution is worth analyzing actually. It is can manifest as a form of warfare although not always. The US revolution pitting the British North American Colonies against England is an example. The first Republic since Rome. The US Revolution was fought not just by the sacrifices of the Colonial Army, but with the political and diplomatic savvy and finances of wealthy colonial landowners.
These men, our founding fathers, not only arranged for weapons and allies (notably France) and imported/recruited professional soldiers and officers but led the propaganda campaign to get the colonists interested in the first place. Revolutions are not the product of spontaneity, at least not successful ones; they are the culmination of organizational efforts by well educated men and women.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#11New Post! Nov 14, 2019 @ 00:45:49
Revolutions are delicate things and can be defeated militarily. However, if a powerful nation defeats a revolution the idea of that revolution, even in failure persists. People in the region will remember for generations to come the valiant men and women who were defeated and their cause may come back to haunt the empire. North Ireland is an example of this.
It is far more useful for the nation being revolted against to simply hijack the revolution. In this way, the new and successful revolutionary leadership can destroy in the eyes of the populace the revolutionary ideas themselves.
For instance, the French Revolution was a lengthy affair. The royalty of France was removed from power, but no democracy was able to arise from the ashes. What did arise was Napolean who declared himself Emperor and then proceeded to march his army off to Russia with no coats. Stupidity or genius? The end result was democracy would not exist in a real sense on the European Continent again until after WWI.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#12New Post! Nov 14, 2019 @ 00:51:03
A more recent example of this is the Iranian Revolution. The people of Iran had grown weary of the Shah and his suspension of the constitution. The Shan had also been undermining the influence of Muslim clerics in his nation. Many different groups of Iranians joined together to defeat the Shah and his forces. The Ayatollah Khomenei ( basically the Pope of Shia Islam ) who was in exile in France was allowed by the French to go back to Iran on the promise he would not try to take over the country.
After the Ayatollah took over the country he systematically executed and arrested all the leaders of the groups that helped him remove the Shah and then instituted a Theocracy, not what most Iranians who participated expected.
mrmhead 3 minutes ago




NE, Ohio
#13New Post! Nov 14, 2019 @ 13:09:44
@4d4m Said

A more recent example of this is the Iranian Revolution. The people of Iran had grown weary of the Shah and his suspension of the constitution. The Shan had also been undermining the influence of Muslim clerics in his nation. Many different groups of Iranians joined together to defeat the Shah and his forces. The Ayatollah Khomenei ( basically the Pope of Shia Islam ) who was in exile in France was allowed by the French to go back to Iran on the promise he would not try to take over the country.
After the Ayatollah took over the country he systematically executed and arrested all the leaders of the groups that helped him remove the Shah and then instituted a Theocracy, not what most Iranians who participated expected.



Kind of "Be careful for what you wish"

After this toxic cycle of politics, if it doesn't get better, we need to clear the slate of political parties and start over.

The Structure of the gov't seems workable. But it's those who now inhabit it that are the problem.
DiscordTiger On about 2 hours ago
The Queen of Random

Administrator




Emerald City, United States (g
#14New Post! Nov 14, 2019 @ 20:27:07
Also during WWII when more people were there to backup industry at home, we were mostly a society of one income household. Now two incomes are needed to maintain a household, so there is just no one to take on the extra "work" and still boost the economy. Now all the "profit" from war goes to companies like Halliburton not workers like Rosie. And profits to Halliburton doesn't stimulate the economy like profits to Rosie did.
4d4m On about 2 hours ago




Leavenworth, Kansas
#15New Post! Nov 15, 2019 @ 00:05:21
Before the revolution, man exploited man, now it's the other way around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q
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