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Probability for outcome of game

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markiecarter On February 09, 2011




London, United Kingdom
#1New Post! Feb 09, 2011 @ 14:13:47
I have been looking at how to study the outcome of a ball game between two teams based on their past results. Let's look at an example using teams United and Rovers.

In their past 7 games, United have a goal difference of 0, 2, 1, -1, 0, 3, 2, 1.

In their past 7 games, Rovers have a goal difference of -2, -1, 1, 0, 0, -4, 0.

I have calculated that r = 0.48, which tells us that United are quite strong favourites to beat Rovers when they play.

Now, I know that United are the home team and Rovers are the away team. I have calculated that 41% of games in their division end in a home win, 27% end in a draw and 32% in a win for the away team.

So what I want to know is what are the probabilities of the following three outcomes: 1. United to beat Rovers. 2. A draw. 3. Rovers to beat United.

The sum of these three probabilities should sum to 1, as there are no other possible options.

Can you help?
sAeGeSpAeNe On October 05, 2021
Part-time Nidologist





The other Bristol..., Connecti
#2New Post! Feb 09, 2011 @ 14:15:23
No.
waldo On August 02, 2016
I don't care





lancaster, United Kingdom
#3New Post! Feb 09, 2011 @ 14:30:52
United to win as they always cheat and play for 95 or 96 minutes
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