My gut is telling me that a no vote would help out Clinton...
I'm not so sure about this... and I mean I really don't know.
I've tried to do a little research with mixed results.
This weekend a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, among other things showed a 2 way race being:
And a 4 way race being:
If (big "if" ) that is accurate, it would appear that from a 2 way race to a 4 way race, Clinton loses 6%, while Trump loses 3%..
If that is accurate (and it might not be) a 3rd Party vote would help Trump.
Obama says backing 3rd Party candidate Is 'a Vote for Trump. But we all know that we can't trust him.
Paul Ryan is telling Republicans to vote their conscience. (I suspect that is a subtle way to tell republicans that they are not evil horrible people if they don't vote for Trump....but I could be wrong.)
And on the other hand the Guardian
thinks that the "loss" would be equal: "Contrary to popular belief, third-party votes don’t just come from would-be Democratic voters – they appear to be coming equally from potential Republicans."
A writer for US News & World Report thinks that a vote for a 3rd party candidate actually ultimately helps the two major parties... in the long run. His take is, if you are a conservative and vote for a 3rd party then you help the Democrats... AND if you are a liberal and vote for a 3rd party you actually help the Republicans... Thus a 3rd party vote is ultimately a vote against yourself.... Unless of course you fully embrace that 3rd party, in which case it is just a wasted vote.
For me... I don't know who it will help, but I am convinced a "protest" 3rd party vote is a massive waste of time.
I maintain that the only way for a 3rd party to become a viable option is from the bottom up and through electing 3rd party candidates not at the presidential level, but at the legislative level state & federal.
Still, I believe that people should vote for the candidate of their choice by secret ballot.